植耀辉: 港股升势似未尽 北水进场波动难免
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，借用投资大师Peter Lynch的鸡尾酒会理论去描述现时大市的情况可谓相当贴切：在第一阶段，当出席酒会时，大家会先互相结识一番，而当Lynch告诉别人从事基金管理工作时，大家不感兴趣，甚至宁愿跟牙医讨论牙齿保健问题也不理睬Lynch；到第二阶段时，大家会有兴趣了解多一点投资市场，但仍不会太在意股份表现。
到第三阶段，投资者不再理会牙医了，反而不断询问Lynch「心水」，就连牙医也凑热闹似的一并讨论股票。到最後阶段，大家同样谈股市，但今次却不是询问Lynch，而是向他推介自己心水，就连街坊也像「股神」上身，将自己心得「倾囊相授」─这个时候，就是股市最亢奋之时，亦恐怕是股市即将大跌的先兆矣!
那现时港股究竟是那个阶段呢?笔者认为虽然投资气氛开始变得炽热，但仍未去到全民皆股阶段，故较倾向现时约处於第三阶段，不过确实越来越多「新手」被投资市场吸引而进场，尤其是较年轻的一群。他们除了会孖展认购新股外，部分亦会炒卖美股(如Tesla及ARKK)及港股(如比亚迪(01211.HK)或思摩尔(06969.HK))。笔者认为年轻人进取一点未尝不可，但切记被胜利冲昏头脑，以及无论如何，一定要有止蚀概念。因为升市之中个个是赢家，惟一旦市况逆转，如何能理智地作出相应部署，才是最大的考验!
不过谈及本轮升市，亦一定要提到北水威力。受美国「黑名单」制裁影响，部分个股如中移动(00941.HK)及中芯(00981.HK)一度遭基金抛售，惟在北水大手吸纳下，相关股份股价不跌反升，而且北水涌港之规模不断增加之余，口味亦越来越多元化。截至昨日(19日)，南下资金已连续20个交易日出现净买入，而且更是连续第12个交易日净买入金额超过100亿元，由年初至今南下资金净流入累积已达到约1,853亿元。
在北水涌港的同时，笔者亦发现内地有不少文章及报告「唱好」港股。大部分的论点，离不开相比A股现时估值，港股显得相当吸引，而人民币升值令以港元计价之港股「更加抵」；另外亦有提到中概股第二上市令基金能有更多投资新经济股份机会。
不过其中一种看法较令笔者在意的是在南下资金持续增加下，港股定价权未来将从外资转移至内资的看法。这情况是港股通开通後其中一个必然会发生之现象，只是随着美国「黑名单」的出现，令步伐进一步加快而已。截至本周一(18日)为止，北水持股量超过两成之股份数量便有69只，持股量超过15%之股份数量则达到108只。这批股份部分是与A股呈大折让之H股，其余则是当炒内需股或新经济股。可以预期，未来北水持续流入，对港股交投及气氛应属正面，不过随之而来却可能出现「A股化」现象，波动性亦无可避免增加，所以投资者亦可能要重新适应此「新常态」矣!
(笔者为证监会持牌人，并未持有相关股份)~
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