雅迪控股(01585.HK)：市值突破500億，如何看待後續空間
機構：方正證券
雅迪近期市值首次站上 500 億港幣，自 11 月低點以來漲幅已超70%，我們認為公司雖受益行業拐點，但自身 Alpha 更強，增速遠超行業，作為行業龍頭仍有較大的成長空間。
1、2021 年電動兩輪車行業整體需求達 5000 萬，行業拐點明確
新國標全面推行前景下，北京、上海、深圳、天津等城市過渡期截止至 2021 年，釋放增量需求超 1000 萬輛；共享電單車和即時配送市場政策有望明晰，帶動下游持續高頻換車需求;預計2021 年行業整體需求超 5000 萬輛，市場規模達一千億。
2、持續推出爆款以改善產品結構，高端、海外將發力
2021 年雅迪控股將通過多個新系列持續打造爆款車型，並推出冠智系列電動車，主打高端智能化，同時也將建立全新的品牌體系，改善公司產品結構，持續提高 ASP；研發上明年整體研發預算將超 10 億元，同時與 CATL、ATL、立訊精密等科技企業開展技術研發合作，保證持續智能化競爭力；渠道上也將持續下沉，線下門店有望加速擴張，我們預計明年銷量增速將超過 30%；出口高端電摩出口高於國內，目前在公司收入佔比極低，疫情平穩後將加快越南工廠投建速度，海外市場未來貢獻業績彈性大。
3、雅迪控股市值站上 500 億港幣，中長期千億空間
中期空間：2020 年雅迪控股市佔率大幅提升，現已超過 20%，預計終極形態超 40%，疊加利潤率提升，對應 2025 年公司淨利 潤預計超 50 億,中期空間有望翻倍；長期空間：消費者雖對產品價格敏感，但願為智能化高端產品付費（可類比變頻空調發展過程），雅迪對高端產品深入佈局，未來單車 ASP 有望翻倍；疊加全球摩托車油改電趨勢，公司未來將持續拓展海外市場，長期空間有望再翻倍。
盈利預測：預計公司 20-22 年歸母淨利潤為9.3/13.2/18.4 億元，對應 PE 為 47.0/33.1/23.7 倍，首次覆蓋，暫不予評級。
風險提示：政策推進不及預期，產能釋放不及預期，行業競爭加劇，市場風險偏好導致估值調整風險。
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