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2021年度通信行业投资策略:真5G时代,共享流量基建和生产的盛宴
格隆汇 01-04 15:40

机构:华安证券

核心观点

5G将带动全球流量持续增长,2021将迎来流量基建和生产的正循环。5G带来更丰富的通讯形式和更精致的通讯体验,带动全球流量增速回升。2021流量产业链投资还将以基建为主,而5G应用的流量生产新环节是看点。

流量基建方面,我们建议把握三条投资主线。

1)顺周期性:运营商资本开支规模将稳中有增,加之外部利空因素的出尽,5G产业链将迎来修复性行情,重点关注主设备商、PCB、天线滤波器、交换机等。

 2)抓确定性:站在市场景气度的角度考虑,我们看好受益于国防信息化投入提升的军工通信板块;站在产业链成本优势的角度考虑,光模块产业链值得持续重点关注。

3)找新机遇:政府引领+运营商主推,5G行业专网配合边缘计算将引领行业数字化转型;卫星产业前景广阔,卫星互联网价值主要在制造发射环节,北斗导航和空间遥测下游应用存掘金机遇。

 流量生产方面,从需求的奥义,关注三方面投资机会。

1)需求之“大”:5G渗透率提升带动智能终端生态百花齐放,关注5G FWA、云游戏、云XR等产业加速落地的机会。

2)需求之“泛”:物联网连接数首超人连,模组首先受益,下游平台应用的发展有望复制移动互联网。

 3)需求之“轻”:云计算渗透本质是轻量化减少IT成本,云基础设施投资成长为主,周期为辅,IDC则需把握确定性。

守正出奇,综合把握业绩和估值。首先把握由5G招标、海外疫情修复等带来业绩边际向好的5G基站、光模块、交换机等行业的春季行情;此后全年的走势中我们建议把握具有行业高景气的确定性行业,如军工通信、IoT模组、统一通讯、IDC等;此外,我们建议关注垂直行业科技赋能,估值有望重构的机会。

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