新股策略 | 別隻盯着泡泡瑪特，這隻新股穩賺近千的綠鞋套利機會了解下
今天的新股市場上泡泡瑪特光芒四射，開盤即翻倍，盤初股價一度漲到112%，一手最多可以賺8650港元。正當打新者沉浸在“拆盲盒”的快樂中時，另一個確定性高的綠鞋套利機會卻被忽視。
大唐集團控股也在今日上市，這是一家中小型地產開發商。港股新股市場對地產股都不太感冒，一般來說認購都是不足或者剛足額的冷清狀態，中籤率100%，打新或許機會不大，但是卻可以密切關注綠鞋套利機會。
什麼是綠鞋套利？簡單來說，公司在招股時會授出超額配股權，保薦人可以要求上市公司按發售價額外發行15%的股份，來補足國配的超額認購。
在實際操作中，如果進行了超額分配，這15%的股份是先找大股東借來的，如何歸還呢？有兩種方式。
其一，若上市後股價沒有跌破發行價，保薦人就行使權力要求上市公司按發行價多發股份，保薦人賺的是承銷傭金；其二，若股價破發，保薦人可以在二級市場上買入這15%的股份，賺的是差價。
什麼情況下綠鞋套利策略最穩妥？沒有回撥的股票最合適。
以大唐集團爲例，公開發售認購不足，只有0.76倍，最終公開分配的股數只有2548.5萬股，佔發售股數的7.6%，可以理解爲散戶的持貨。而超額分配的股數有5001萬股，佔發售股數的15%，這15%的綠鞋子彈足以覆蓋散戶7.6%的拋壓。
若這類股票上市首日或者暗盤出現大幅下跌，如10%以下，則可以實施綠鞋套利策略，當穩價人出手護盤後，股價預期可以拉回到發行價甚至以上。
大唐集團平開之後，盤初股價迅速走低，最低價觸及3.61港元，跌幅20.83%，但隨後穩價人工銀國際證券買盤涌現，股價快速上揚，最終收在4.59港元，漲幅0.66%。若在3.61港元買入，尾盤賣出，一手盈利可達980港元（不計手續費）。
從uSMART盈立智投統計數據可以看到，2019年以來上市的地產股，首日股價都能收在發行價附近。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
