You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
中国太平(00966.HK):寿险阶段性低点或已出现,期待后续价值复苏,给予“买入”评级,目标价24.82 港元
格隆汇 12-09 14:25

机构:天风证券

评级:买入

目标价:24.82 港元

投资建议:2019 年以来,公司价值增长持续承压,处于由“规模扩张”向“产能驱动”的转型期。寿险业务 2020 年上半年受疫情冲击业务节奏影响大幅下滑,我们判断三季度以来价值平台同比有所提升,明年全年有望在开门红提前叠加低基数下迎来反转向上。公司目前估值处于历史底部,对应 2020 年、2021 年 P/EV 分别为 0.29 倍、0.26 倍,EPS 为 2.17 港元、2.43 港元,目标价格 24.82 港元,给予“买入”评级。

国有综合全牌照保险集团,由“规模扩张”向“产能驱动”转型。2012 年至今,太平集团经历了“三年再造”、“精品战略”和“科技太平”三个战略期,虽然每个时期的战略内涵有所变化,但以规模为导向的战略核心贯穿始终。在明确的扩张目标引领下,公司业务规模快速攀升,7 年间总保费规模扩张近 4 倍,市场地位由 2012 年的第 8 位稳步提升至第 4 位,NBV扩张近 6 倍。2019 年以来,随着人口红利逐步消减、竞争压力加剧的市场环境下,规模扩张战略不再适用,公司逐步从“规模扩张”向“产能驱动”转型。转型举措包括:1)优化分公司考核;2)区域化事业部制组织变革,提升管理的精细化程度;3)落实高客战略,推进“产品+养老社区及医疗健康管理服务”。4)科技一体化。预计后续转型效果将逐步显现。

寿险业务从规模向质量转型,业绩短期承压,后续有望改善。2020 年上半年受疫情冲击业务节奏的影响增速下滑,主要源于:1)疫情打乱了原有的既定业务节奏,1 月保费冲刺提前中断,2、3 月经营重心由健康险推动被迫转至“稳队伍”,一季度个险渠道新单同比下降严重,NBV 同比下滑 48%; 2)银保渠道价值率大幅下滑,预计由于费用投入加大所致。二季度以来,公司价值平台有所提升,4 月推出老客户保障升级包活动,进一步激活队伍,加快业务平台恢复;7 月推出月缴年金保险,8 月前半段集中运作人力,8、 9 月集中运作价值型产品,预计下半年新业务价值继续保持改善趋势,带动全年降幅收窄。此外,2021 年寿险业务开门红策略较去年同期更为积极,叠加 2020 年低基数以及节奏同比大幅好转,我们判断寿险业务的价值增速低点或已过,明年有望迎来正增长,带动整体业绩增长改善。

财险业务综合成本率优化,后续费用率仍有下降空间。公司 2020 年上半年保费收入稳定增长,同比+2%至 139 亿,综合成本率同比小幅下降 0.2pct.至 99.6%,其中费用率同比下降 5.3pct.至 44.7%。保费角度,未来车险综合改革将导致车险保费承压,而非车险业务有望保持高增长,成为后续驱动财险保费增长的主要驱动力。盈利能力角度,车险综合改革将出现“赔付率提升、费用率下降”的蹊跷板效应,后续综合成本率仍有下降空间。

资产管理稳健,权益资产加大高分红股票配置,债券资产信用评级高、风险可控。2020H 公司年化总投资收益率同比上升 55pct.至 5.35%。权益资产方面,股票及基金占总资产比例 13.3%,主动管理的境内纯权益资产市值收益率 31.4%跑赢市场,并加大对低估值、现金流稳定的高分红股票配置。债券资产方面,高信用等级债占比达 99.9%,非标投资 AAA 级产品占比 96.8%。风险提示:1)长端利率超预期下行;2)居民收入预期修复不及预期;3)人力规模同比下降导致保障型销售产品销售不及预期。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account