鋼鐵煤炭行業月報：繼續看好爐料，動力煤價格
機構：華泰證券
監管發聲，爐料、動力煤價格有望從急漲轉慢漲
我們預計12月汽車、家電廠商多會追趕年度目標，熱卷、冷卷需求繼續向好；螺紋社庫仍有較大壓力，但短期需求無憂，價格表現不弱。鐵礦、動力煤前期漲價較多，近期監管發聲，停更動力煤價格指數，放開進口印尼動力煤，雖然以上手段或難以扭轉兩者供需格局，但有望使價格從急漲轉為緩漲，有利於商品類股票表現。鐵礦觀點不變，繼續看多，短期拉漲因素包括鋼廠春節累庫；煤炭方面今冬氣温偏低、建築施工需求較強等前期判斷均應驗，目前看日耗仍較高，港口庫存偏低，春節累庫仍有望推高煤價。焦炭價格或受益於產能置換時間差，而焦煤仍具備一定提價空間。
21Q1為乘用車淡季，板材價格、利潤或將短期承壓
據寶鋼股份月度調價公告，12月熱卷、冷卷期貨價格環比均上調100元/噸，且12月汽車、家電廠商多會追趕年度生產目標，冷卷價格多在12月有上漲行情，因此我們認為12月冷卷需求、價格表現或仍較好。Q1一般為乘用車、家電生產消費淡季，冷卷價格、利潤可能回調。
監管力度加大，但不改變供需，繼續看多鐵礦價格
11月，鐵礦價格小幅震盪上行，月末澳洲PB粉898元/噸，環比上升28元/噸。鋼廠庫存方面，11月末進口礦庫存環比上升，較10月末增加127萬噸，高於去年同期水平。但從去年情況看（農曆），鐵礦預計將於12月中下旬開始補庫，進口礦庫存將快速上行，在港口庫存水平與去年同期基本持平的情況下，或帶動鐵礦價格上行。另外，12月4日大商所對鐵礦石期貨發佈市場風險提示函，我們認為近期對鐵礦石市場監管力度或加大，對投機等行為的打擊，或致礦價大幅波動可能性降低；但監管手段或不改鐵礦供需格局等基本面，我們仍對礦價持相對樂觀態度。
今冬低温、施工需求佳已應驗，繼續看好動力煤價
據中央氣象局官方問答（2020.11.10），預計今冬影響我國冷空氣活動頻繁，勢力偏強，全國大部氣温接近常年同期到偏低，需特別重視隆冬（2021年1月）可能出現大範圍強低温雨雪過程；而據其短期預報，預計12月上旬全國大部地區氣温較常年同期偏低，中旬四川盆地及長江中下游以北地區平均氣温較常年同期偏低1～3℃。因此，綜合來看，今冬氣温偏低或已部分應驗，動力煤需求較好。另外，近期諸多動力煤指數暫停發佈、或意在減緩煤價漲幅，但目前港口庫存水平偏低、且進口政策無明顯邊際變化，因此我們繼續看好動力煤價。
風險提示：宏觀經濟形勢變化；疫情發展超預期；下游需求低於預期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
