協合新能源(00182.HK):10月發電量強勁增長,未來價值迴歸可期,給予“買入”評級,目標價0.53港元
機構:國元證券
評級:買入
目標價:0.53港元
投資要點
2020年10月風電發電量同比增長37.05%,超出預期:
2020年10月,公司的權益發電量總計469.93GWh,同比上升31.47%。其中,風電發電量同比增加37.05%,太陽能發電量同比減少12.15%。2020年1-10個月累計發電量3,852.18GWh,同比上升7.2%,其中風電發電量同比增長9.12%,太陽能發電量同比減少7.32%。
持續踐行“資產置換”策略,提升資產質量並改善現金流:
近日,公司公告擬出售雲南光伏100MW項目變現1.75億元人民幣。經初步測算,雖然此次電站項目出售PB僅約0.83倍,但仍顯著高於公司目前0.56倍PB水平。公司將依賴度電補貼的電站出售,獲得的資金有利於公司開發新的平價項目,未來公司對補貼的依賴將進一步降低。
國家着手解決補貼欠款問題,運營商將迎來價值重估:
2020年10月20日,三部委聯合下發“合理利用小時數”新政,確定了可再生能源發電項目享受中央財政補貼資金的總額度,從而對項目補貼權益進行了“確權”;同時明確補貼和綠證的脱鈎,為綠色電力交易創造了條件。繼“合理利用小時數”新政後,近日生態環境部就全國碳排放權交易市場建設公開徵求意見。我們認為,國家相關補貼政策的密集出台,表明國家各部委着手解決補貼欠款問題的決心,解決方案正逐步明朗,預期補貼欠款問題解決後,將顯著改善風電/光伏運營商的現金流,運營商價值重估值得期待。
維持買入評級,提高目標價至0.53港元:
目前公司2020年PE約5.10倍,PB約0.56倍,股息率約5.75%,仍處於較高安全邊際。我們更新公司盈利預測並結合行業內可比公司估值情況,提高公司目標價至0.53港元,相當於2021年5.5倍PE和0.7倍PB,目標價較現價有22%上升空間,維持買入評級。

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