滔搏(06110.HK):門店優化+數字化推進,疫情更顯經營韌性,維持“增持”評級,目標價14.5 港幣
機構:東方證券
評級:增持
目標價:14.5 港幣
核心觀點
滔搏發佈 FY2021H1 中報(2020 年3 月 1 日至 8 月31 日),公司實現營業收入 157.7 億元,同比下滑 7%,實現歸母淨利潤 13.1 億元,同比下滑11%。經營活動現金流為 26.7億,同比淨增加 1.83 億元。
毛利率受疫情影響有所下滑,費用管控得力,實際税率有所上升。從毛利率來看,FY21H1 公司毛利率為 41.6%,同比下降 2.1pcts,主要原因系公司在疫情期間銷售折扣增加。從期間費用率來看,FY21H1 銷售及分銷開支佔收入比重為 26.7%,同比下降1.2pcts,疫情期間租金開支有所減免,同時公司在銷售薪酬和門店經營開支等方面有所精簡;一般及行政開支佔收入比重為 3.8%,同比下降 0.5pcts,除了由於去年同期的上市費用和無形資產攤銷費用較高外,公司對廣告宣傳等費用也做了嚴格管控。實際税率方面,FY21H1 為 29.4%,同比增長 3.7pcts,主要系因分派特殊股息額外計提預扣税所致。
疫情期間優化門店結構,開大店關小店,淨關店背景下毛銷售面積逆勢增長。截至 FY21H1,公司直營門店數量為 8,156 家,同比淨關店 209 家,但毛銷售面積逆市增長 5.2%,公司基於“優選+優化”的策略,150 平米及以上面積的店鋪佔比持續提升,其中 300 平米以上的大店數量佔比 8%,同比提升 0.7pcts。
會員規模繼續擴大,繼續推進數字化進程。截至FY21H1,公司累計註冊會員數達 3,310 萬人,上半年淨增加會員數達 590 萬人,會員貢獻店內零售額比例也大幅提升,從年初的 91%提升至年中的 97.3%。滔搏運動 APP 於今年 2 月 14 日上線,集會員活動、積分兑換、購物商城、限量發售等功能於一體,截至 FY21H1,用户規模已突破 1,100 萬人。在疫情中公司加速推進數字化進程,重構數字化場景下的零售閉環,穩步提升以門店為基礎的微信小程序覆蓋、移動收銀工具的開通。
財務預測與投資建議
我們基本維持未來三年的盈利預測,預計 FY2021-23 的每股收益分別為0.37 元、0.48 元和 0.56 元(原 0.38、0.48 和 0.56 元),給予公司 FY2022年 26 倍的市盈率,對應目標價為 14.5 港幣,維持“增持”評級。
風險提示:經濟持續減速和疫情反覆對運動服飾零售的可能影響;阿迪達斯和耐克業務增長的波動,其他品牌合作的可能變化等。
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