《大行報告》花旗:大型內銀價值明顯被低估 屬撈底時機
花旗發表研究報告,預期中國銀行今年首九個月的盈利增長與上半年相似,而各銀行的增長差異將會很大。股份制銀行,例如招商銀行(03968.HK)、中國光大銀行(06818.HK)等的撥備前利潤及稅後淨營業利潤增長表現會好過同業,這是因為更好的手續費收入及淨息差趨勢所致。
該行預期,內銀在第三季的盈利增長出現差異化後,監管機構將給予銀行更多酌情權,因為第三季的經濟復甦強於預期;盈利下降將導致資本壓力上升;不同銀行或有不同的不良貸款問題要處理。另外,經濟復甦推動信貸需求改善。該行看到第三季的信貸需求增長強勁。
花旗提到,中資銀行的估值明顯偏低(2020年H股市賬率0.56倍,A股市賬率0.77倍),認為第三季的業績好過預期、美國制裁風險帶來的嘈音減少,以及經濟復甦將減少銀行的國民服務壓力。在H股當中,看到大型銀行的估值被明顯低估(2020年市賬率0.4倍),而盈利下行風險或派息比率減少的憂慮已在股價中反映出來。
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