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房地產行業港股地產週報:平均房貸利率連續10個月下降,維持“推薦”行業評級
格隆匯 10-06 11:04

機構:興業證券

評級:推薦

投資要點:

行情概述(2020.9.21-2020.9.25):這周恆生指數下跌4.99%,恆生國企指數下跌5.11%。恆生地產指數下跌3.94%,滬深300地產指數下跌6.60%。美股市場方面,道瓊斯指數、納斯達克指數和標普500分別下跌1.75%、上漲1.11%、下跌0.63%。

9月全國平均房貸利率延續下降趨勢:9月平均房貸利率進一步下降,全國首套房平均房貸利率為5.24%,同比下降4.90%,環比下降0.19%;二套房房貸利率為5.55%,同比下降4.80%,環比下降0.18%。(數據來源:Wind)

銷售和業績的韌性凸顯板塊的價值:截止目前板塊估值為2019A/2020E為5.8/5.1倍PE,估值凸顯吸引力。房企的銷售持續恢復,4月主流房企單月銷售平均增速已轉正,6月主流房企累計銷售平均增速已轉正,8月行業累計銷售平均增速已轉正,截至8月主流房企平均銷售完成度達到59%,接下來幾個月房企還將持續加大推盤力度。我們保持此前判斷,認為房企銷售累計增速還將持續提升,下半年整體好於上半年。房企半年業績仍具韌性,預計全年業績將更好,房企派息力度保持較高水平,當前平均股息收益率為6.9%。房企境外發債恢復正常,融資成本亦伴隨有所下降。從防禦的角度看,優選財務實力雄厚、基本面穩健紮實、業績確定性高的房地產公司,推薦旭輝控股、華潤置地、世茂集團、龍湖集團、寶龍地產、建發國際、中國金茂、融創中國等。財務狀況良好的大中型內房股的債券仍然是很好的選擇。

風險提示:宏觀經濟增長放緩、行業限制政策加嚴、流動性收緊、商品房銷售不及預期、人民幣貶值。

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