You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行报告》花旗:汇控(00005.HK)正受中美政治不确定因素影响 料港银未来数周受压
阿思达克 09-23 10:50
花旗发表香港银行业报告表示,香港银行股再次受到新的政治不确定性压力,据美国「金融犯罪执法网文件」(FinCEN)的相关报道,再次引发了投资者对银行反洗钱做法和诉讼风险的担忧。此外,中国商务部近日发布了关於「不可靠实体清单规定」,据《环球时报》消息指,汇控可能被列入名单。

该行留意到中国惩罚措施,如果一个实体被认定为「不可靠」,潜在采取措施包括,限制/禁止从事与中国有关的进出口活动、限制/禁止在中国投资、限制/禁止相关人员和运输工具进入、限制/取消中国有关人员的工作许可、居留或居住资格及处以罚款等。

花旗指,汇控在中国大陆的敞口约占贷款的4%,收入占中单位数字(占6%)、占除税前溢利占13%。如果中国将其列入清单,即使不采取强硬措施,将令其客户减少交易,中国大陆业务也可能受到不利影响。在香港的中国大陆客户也可能避免与汇丰银行进行不必要的交易。在最坏的情况下,汇丰银行可能被迫撤出其在中国内地的投资,例如对交通银行(03328.HK)的投资。该行予汇控「中性」评级及目标价34.6元。

至於渣打集团(02888.HK),花旗指渣打在中国大陆的敞口在百分比上类似於汇丰银行。由於渣打一直积极参与「一带一路」倡议,因此估计其所面临的政治风险较小。由於政治风险加剧,其他香港银行的股价可能在未来几周内也回落,该行予渣打「买入」评级及目标价56.1元。

此外,与「金融犯罪执法网文件」相关的媒体报道,涉及银行提交的大约2,100个可疑活动报告(SAR),这些报告包含1999年至2017年期间与涉嫌洗钱或其他潜在非法活动有关,这些大多是监管机构已知的遗留交易,并已由银行在先前的诉讼和和解中得到解决,如汇控在2012年被罚款19亿美元,渣打在2019年被罚款11亿美元。然而,负面消息流很可能导致对银行反洗钱行为的监管越来越严格,并进一步抑制投资者情绪。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account