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蒙牛乳業(02319.HK):乳品需求逐季改善,維持“審慎增持”評級,目標價42港元
格隆匯 09-09 09:49

機構:興業證券

評級:審慎增持

目標價:42港元

投資要點

1H20 收入、業績符合預期,二季度可比業績超預期。公司上半年實現營收 375.33 億元,同比增速-5.8%,實現歸母淨利潤 12.12 億元,同比增速-41.7%,符合市場預期。公司披露二季度業績結果,可比業務方面,實現營收197.65億元,同比增速 19.2%,實現歸母淨利潤 12.85億元,同比增速86.2%,二季度收入、業績增速超過市場預期。

毛利率平穩,銷售費用率提升較多故淨利率水平下降至 3.2%。上半年公司毛利率為 39%,相比去年同期下降 0.1pct,銷售費用率為 30.6%,同比提升2.2pct,管理費用率為 3.8%,同比下降0.2pct。由於費用率提升較多,淨利率下降1.98pct。其中銷售費用率提升較多的原因為 1)上半年公司贊助了較多電視節目,支出較多;2)疫情期間去庫存打折力度加大。下半年銷售費用率將會減少,盈利能力環比提升。

下半年環比加速, 收入有望持平,業績降幅縮窄。 上半年受特殊事件影響,公司液態奶增速同比為負,考慮到特侖蘇二季度增長強勁,且渠道調研顯示三季度開始乳品需求恢復較好,我們認為全年液態奶收入增速有望達到5%,冰淇淋業務同比增速5%,奶酪製品增速40%,奶粉方面由於君樂寶出表影響較大,維持全年增速-40%,我們調整公司盈利預測,預計20-22年公司EPS分別為0.8、1.08、1.3元,對應2020年9 月 7日收盤價,PE分別為43、32、26倍,維持審慎增持評級。

風險提示:原奶價格上漲超預期,終端動銷不及預期,費用超預期 

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