食品飲料行業2020年中報綜述:白酒板塊Q2環比改善,食品板塊加速明顯,維持“買入”行業評級
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
白酒:Q2已現改善趨勢,高端酒板塊表現好於行業。據Wind(下同),20H1申萬白酒板塊收入/歸母淨利潤分別同增2.28%/8.04%,Q2分別同比增長3.91%/6.12%,收入增速環比Q1加速。白酒板塊20H1銷售收現同增-5.29%,預收款同比增長-7.82%,應收款同比增長-21.64%,經營性淨現金流同比增長-63.81%,疫情影響下回款仍較弱。白酒板塊表現分化:(1)高端酒:茅台、五糧液增長相對穩定,瀘州老窖受系列酒影響拖累增速。20Q2茅台、五糧液、老窖收入同比增長8.79%/10.13%/6.20%;歸母淨利潤同比增長8.92%/10.16%/22.51%。(2)次高端:受疫情影響次高端白酒龍頭增長放緩或負增長。20Q2汾酒、洋河、水井收入同比增長18.44%/-18.57%/-90.08%;歸母淨利潤同比增長16.11%/-18.10%/-172.59%。(3)區域龍頭:20Q2順鑫、古井、今世緣、口子窖收入同比增長9.45%/-3.51%/3.76%/-25.07%;歸母淨利潤同比增長-10.91%/-16.51%/1.91%/-30.53%。
大眾品:食品必選屬性強,20Q2復工疊加補庫存、收入業績加速增長。(1)調味品:餐飲和流通渠道逐漸恢復,龍頭企業快速增長。20Q2海天、中炬、榨菜和恆順收入同比增長22.29%/20.67%/27.80%/15.12%;歸母淨利潤同增28.83%/40.79%/49.62%/3.58%。(2)餐飲供應鏈:疫情期間居家需求旺盛,疊加20Q2餐飲逐漸恢復和渠道補庫存需求,20Q2三全、安井、天味收入同增33.48%/27.02%/80.73%;歸母淨利潤同增300.88%/71.61%/321.55%,頤海20H1收入/歸母淨利潤同增33.83%/47.55%。(3)休閒食品:居家消費需求旺盛,20Q2洽洽、鹽津、有友、三隻松鼠收入同比增長21.13%/61.47%/39.86%/11.92%;歸母淨利潤同比增長37.38%/93.14%/82.01%/-101.10%。(4)乳製品:伊利20Q2產品結構優化和廣告投放成效顯著,收入/歸母淨利潤同比增長22.49%%/72.28%。(5)肉製品:龍頭肉製品噸利潤再創新高,改革初顯成效,雙匯肉製品業務20Q2收入/營業利潤同比增長21.83%/62.55%,20Q2肉製品均價/銷量同比增長16.75%/4.35%。(6)啤酒:20Q2啤酒行業收入和淨利潤明顯回暖,20Q2青啤/重啤收入同比增長9.15%/19.66%,歸母淨利潤同比增長60.12%/38.47%。
個股推薦:白酒推薦茅台、五糧液、老窖、順鑫、汾酒、古井、今世緣、洋河、口子窖。調味品推薦海天、中炬、榨菜、恆順、千禾。餐飲供應鏈推薦安井、頤海、三全、天味。休閒食品推薦洽洽、絕味、桃李、有友。綜合食品推薦安琪酵母。乳製品推薦伊利。肉製品推薦雙匯。啤酒推薦華潤、青啤、重啤。
風險提示:宏觀經濟不及預期;疫情反覆風險;食品安全問題。
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