植耀辉: 油价竟可「平过水」 汇控(00005.HK)难关难难过
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，「油价平过买水?」这个看似讲笑的说法，估不到变成事实!5月纽约期油「史无前例」跌至负数，竟然会出现「贴钱卖油」行情。有一个疑问，既然石油供大於求，又没有足够仓储，为何油公司不索性关闭油井呢?所以笔者亦搜集了不少资料，现简单跟大家分享。
美国开采页岩气/油之方法，最为人熟悉的便是水力压裂法。当气/油从裂缝释放，便能开始收集。不过，一旦开采後要「叫停」，除非将所有裂缝重新贯水或其他化学物质，但成本可能十分高。而且页岩油与传统油井不同之处，在於页岩油开发周期短，一个页岩油气井产量在出油後第二个月已达到峰值，而根据EIA报告，单口页岩油气井前两年的衰减率分别达到69%和39%，首三年的产量亦接近其生命周期产油量之80%，当然现时不少美国油公司已暂停开辟新井，只是要平衡供需关系，短期应该难以达到矣。
而且，由於供需关系依然失衡，除非短时间内经济活动能显着出现改善，否则期油价格「崩盘」的情况将可能每月上演。但更严重的情况是，有关冲击将可能导致数以百计油企濒临破产边缘，并令美国当地相关垃圾债「爆煲」机会急增，对宏观经济亦难免会带来深远影响。
除油价外，有关汇控(00005.HK)的争议亦未见减少。投资者对其未有派发去年第四季股息猛烈批评，尤其是股价已进行除净安排，按理实在是讲不通，哪会想到堂堂一间大型银行会有此安排?问题是今次英国七大金融机构均遭到英国PRA(审慎监管局)「温馨提示」，所以尽管汇控截至去年底核心一级资本充足率达14.7%，但今次情况属「不能矣，非不为也」。
只是有一个更现实的问题，就是投资者是否仍要执着於买汇控呢?有不少投资老手指汇控现价「抵买」，又或来年待经济好转会续派息。现价是否抵买见仁见智，须知道即使疫情过後，全球经济仍面临严峻挑战，而在央行无限量放水下，银行息差只会再进一步收窄；何况即使憧憬经济状况转好，论值博或「反底」板块可能有更多好选择，到时收租及零售股或者更值得留意。所以汇控是否非买不可，这可能是一个没有答案的问题，但基於笔者对未来经济看法悲观，所以亦几可肯定，不会将汇控加入买入名单之列。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，并未持有相关股份)~
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