海底撈(06862.HK)：如何解讀海底撈這份中報盈警？維持“增持”評級
機構：東吳證券
評級：增持
事件：公司發佈盈利預警公告，預期1H20收入較19年同期下滑20%，上半年將錄得淨虧損。
投資要點：
疫情下1H20大致拆分：
公司公告預期1H20收入約7.28億，yoy-20%。其中，我們預計1H20新開店約150至200家，開店速度約為30%+左右（1H19門店593家）；
據此測算，我們預計海底撈2020年上半年可比同店增速約為-30%至-40%。疫情對經營基本面的衝擊比表觀數據所見影響更大；
考慮到1H20疫情的巨大沖擊、人力/租金剛性成本支出、新開門店開辦費用等因素，我們測算並預計，2020年上半年公司歸母利潤同比下滑180%~200%，約合虧損不超過10億元左右；
經營基本面穩中小進，靜待春天。
客流穩中有升，期待下半年穩步復甦。海底撈大陸門店於1月26日全面暫停；3月12日首度逐步恢復營業（85家二三線門店），3月底約600+門店恢復營業；4月中旬大陸所有門店恢復營業（翻枱率約3次/天）；預計5-6月整體翻枱率恢復至3-3.5次/天左右，穩中小升，碎步前行。
持續拓店，新店租約有望受益。本輪疫情衝擊下，龍頭餐飲企業拓店有望在店址選址、免租期、租金等方面持續受益，預計上半年新開店約150-200家，全年新開店數維持300+家預期；同時簽約數保持較好態勢。
盈利預測與投資評級：基於疫情不確定性與謹慎性原則，預計20-22年收入分別為261.4/505.1/656.5億元，同比增長-1.58%/93.2%/30.0%；預計20-22年歸母淨利分別13.6/43.1/57.4億元，同比增長-41.9%/216.2%/33.3%；EPS為0.26/0.81/1.08元，當前股價對應動態PE為127/40/30倍，維持“增持”評級。
風險提示：疫情反覆帶來宏觀經濟波動；公司業務復甦、擴張不及預期風險。
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