《大行報告》中金:內地建材板塊景氣向好 關注海螺水泥、中建材及西部水泥等
中金發表報告指,展望下半年,預期在穩增長政策支撐以及竣工端回暖趨勢下,中國建材板塊整體景氣向好。同時,中期來看,該行認為水泥板塊受益優秀的競爭新格局,有望維持高盈利韌性;消費類建材在新型城鎮化與地產集採紅利共同驅動下,疊加多品類平台化初見雛形,龍頭公司將迎來新成長的黃金時期;玻纖行業供需格局呈現底部改善趨勢,關注龍頭公司競爭優勢與成長性。
該行表示,過去十年中,水泥行業完成了大規模的區域整合,自律限產機制亦逐步成熟。因而,面對需求的短期波動,認為優秀的格局往往能夠扮演區域價格的減震器,預計淡季全國水泥價格回調幅度可控,而在穩增長政策支撐下,下半年旺季水泥市場需求有望維持強勁。
中金指,優質龍頭全年量穩價升,盈利具備超預期空間,區域上看好西北水泥龍頭業績彈性。未來幾年,該行預期水泥行業仍將處於高景氣平台超預期的盈利韌性、行業向上游延展的資源屬性,有望帶動行業估值中樞重塑。
消費建材方面,中金提到展望下半年,隨著竣工復甦,預期與竣工家裝相關的消費建材品類(石膏板、管材等)有望受益。同時,中期來看預期新型城鎮化與精裝房集採紅利有望共同驅動消費建材B端成長動能。未來兩至三年,該行認為B端龍頭仍處在市場份額提升,品類橫向擴張的黃金時期,持續看好防水材料、建築塗料、塑料管、石膏板和五金件等板塊B端龍頭。
至於玻璃行業,該行指觀察到5月以來,浮法玻璃基本面已現拐點,預計今年下半年竣工面積按年增速約12%,支撐玻璃需求穩步釋放,價格或呈現V型走勢;同時,受到原油價格大跌影響,成本端如純鹼、石油焦、重油等均按年大幅下行,下半年玻璃單箱毛利按年增幅可觀,對龍頭全年業績形成支撐。
於個股層面,水泥板塊中金建議關注龍頭,包括海螺水泥(00914.HK)及中國建材(03323.HK),目標價分別77元及11.42元,評級同為「跑贏大市」;以及西北市場區域彈性標的如西部水泥(02233.HK)。消費建材則建議關注中國聯塑(02128.HK),而玻璃板塊看好信義玻璃(00868.HK),目標價10.73元,評級「跑贏大市」。
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