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楓葉教育(01317.HK):亞太大區雛形初現,穩步實現六五規劃,維持“買入”評級,目標價3.8 港元
格隆匯 06-24 13:14

機構:興業證券

評級:買入

目標價:3.8 港元 

投資要點

收購新加坡最大的國際學校 CIS,亞太大區雛形已現:公司目前已完成十二個大區佈局,包括國內十個大區,海外亞太大區、北美大區。此次收購標的新加坡CIS(加拿大國際學校)將作為楓葉在東南亞的旗艦學校,CIS目前已在泰國、越南、緬甸註冊商標待後續開展業務。CIS 提供IB 課程,涵蓋幼兒園到高中階段。學校擁有兩個校園,其中一個校區土地使用期30 年,一個校區為租賃性質,學校容量共超過 4000 名當前利用率達到81%,收購CIS 後公司將有30%的收入來自海外。

收購增厚業績,財務狀況維持健康:此次收購款共 6.8 億新元,其中 4.4億新元為股權收購款,2.37 億新元為債務償還。收購分兩次進行,首次收購標的90%股權及償還債務,第二次10%股權將於2022 年7月收購。此次收購價款對應EV/EBITDA 為13.23倍, 包含税收與貸款利息的 2020年PE 不超過18倍。此次收購公司通過銀行貸款方式融資,在賬現金充足財務狀況仍然健康。收購標的收入 1.18億新元(約合人民幣 6億元) ,淨利潤 2060 萬新元(約合人民幣 1.05 億元) ,標的過往三年淨利潤複合增速40.8%。預計收購完成將帶動公司2021財年淨利潤增厚約 20%。

維持“買入”評級,維持目標價 3.8 港元,穩步向六五規劃 11 萬人目標邁進:公司亞太大區現有南澳、馬來西亞、新加坡三所國際學校,亞太大區基本佈局完成, 未來公司將協同境內外學校課程體系以提升楓葉學校競爭力,並通過國內輕資產輸出+海外併購方式達成公司六五規劃國內 10萬人+海外1萬人的學生規模規劃目標。 疫情對公司2020 財年服務業務收入有一定影響,但教育部認為留學業務受疫情影響僅會是短期情況,當前超過 20 省份中小學已恢復線下授課,公司遠期增長邏輯不變。我們調整盈利預測,預計公司 2020-2022 財年收入分別為 16.37、25.05 和 27.61 億元人民幣(下同),分別同比增長 4.2%、53.0%和 10.2%;調整後淨利潤分別為6.8、9.1和10.2億元,分別同比下降 1.7%、增長 33.3%和 12.6%。維持公司“買入”評級,維持目標價 3.8 港元,目標價對應 2020-2022 財年PE 分別為16、12、10倍。

風險提示:1)國家教育政策變動;2)公司收購、自建等擴張進程不達預期;3)學生、家長對教學質量滿意度下降;4)VIE架構政策風險。

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