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6月:从“复增“到复苏
格隆汇 06-08 11:33

机构:天风证券

经济方面,预计5月当月工业增加值、基建投资和房地产投资增速基本恢复至疫情之前的水平,单月消费增速和制造业投资增速处于“负增”到“复增”的临界点,出口增速受外需拖累转负;PPI保持通缩但同比已经见底,CPI同比继续大幅下行,髙基数下后续可能回落至0附近。按照当前的进度,内需可能在7-8月接近回归潜在增速。随欧美主要经济体陆续复工,外需可能处于最差阶段的末尾,但反映到出口订单修复和出口增速反弹仍需2个月左右时滞,因此出口增速的底部可能出现在5-7月,4季度接近复原。

政策方面,总体来看,两会确定的政策基调贯彻了底线思维,核心在保、以保促稳,没有大举刺激;边际上看,随着基本面逐渐回归正轨,前期救急纾困式的超常宽松政策趋于收敛,但尚不至于转向收紧。在前期政策的大力支持下,金融数据有望进一步改善,预计5月新增社融2.8万亿,存量社融增速升至12.4%。

A股方面,在流动性边际收紧、风险偏好重新回升的影响下,可选消费、科技和周期均存在结构性机会,极高估值的必需消费可能面临逆风。利率方面,从“疫情和政策”做加法到做减法,短期长端利率可能已经调整至均衡位置,中期中枢可能在2.9%左右。

风险提示:国内外疫情再次反复;海外市场大幅调整;三产恢复速度不及预期

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