華潤水泥控股（01313.HK ）：期待產能瓶頸下的價格彈性 ，維持“買入”評級，目標價11.12港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：11.12港元
公司披露2020Q1業績：營業額約55.94億港元，同比減少25.5%；公司擁有人應占盈利約11.14億港元，同比減少25.2%；每股基本盈利15.9港仙。
水泥量跌價升，噸毛利同比增加，韌性極強。疫情影響下，Q1水泥&熟料對外銷量同比下降25.0%至1184萬噸。量的損失導致單噸水泥攤銷的固定成本變大，單噸水泥成本增加了9港元至233港元，以人民幣計價的成本增加約18元（測算值）。Q1單噸水泥售價同比增加26港元至408港元，以人民幣計價的售價同比增加約40元（測算值）。Q1單噸水泥毛利175港元，同比增加17元，毛利率42.9%，同比增1.4pct。
混凝土量跌價穩定。混凝土銷量同比下滑38.3%至159萬立方米，原材料成本增加明顯，單方混凝土成本增26港元，單方毛利下滑12元至94港元/立方米，毛利率18.4%。
費用控制得當。在疫情的不利影響下，Q1三費的絕對值同比下降了20.5%，特別是銷售費用下降最為明顯；費用率同比僅增0.9pct至13.0%；噸水泥費用同比僅增加5.6港元至61.2港元，已屬難能可貴。
我們的觀點：4月兩廣水泥需求加速，有望逐步進入旺季漲價節奏。需求增量來自於基建。我們維持此前的預判：兩廣龍頭在旺季的產能發揮已經接近瓶頸，若旺季疊加趕工，價格具備進一步走高的彈性，節奏快的話是二季度中後期，慢的話是四季度，價格彈性可類比去年四季度的華東市場。
看長，廣西出台暫停產能置換的徵求意見稿，產能無序擴張的隱患得以解除，競爭格局有望更加明朗。
我們維持公司2020-2022年歸母淨利潤分別為97億、98億和97億港元的盈利預測判斷，最新收盤價對應2020年預測PE為7.3X，潛在股息率為6.6%。維持“買入”評級和11.12港元的目標價。
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