九毛九(09922.HK)：網紅太二加速擴張，連鎖王牌揚帆起航，維持“買入”評級，目標價12.0港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：12.0港元
投資要點
多品牌多概念策略，打造全國領先的中式快時尚餐飲品牌：集團目前管理及經營九毛九、太二、2 顆雞蛋煎餅、慫及那未大叔是大廚五個自創的各具特色的餐飲品牌。截至 2019 年底，集團所有品牌自營門店數量達到 292家，其中九毛九 143家、太二 126家，加盟門店數量達到 44家，餐廳網絡覆蓋中國 40 個城市，遍及 16個省份及 4 個直轄市。
九毛九正處調整期，太二成長迅速：公司兩大品牌九毛九和太二佔公司總營收的 98.5%以上。其中，以西北菜為特色的九毛九正處於品牌調整階段，增速平穩，2016-2019 年，銷售收入的CAGR 為 7.9%；太二品牌自 2015年創立，受益於酸菜魚賽道正值爆發期，且品牌網紅效應強大，門店快速擴張下，2016-2019 年收入的 CAGR 達到166.1%；收入佔比也從 5.8%迅速提升至 47.5%。
餐廳門店加速擴張，高盈利品牌太二是主打：太二品牌作為近年重點發力的品牌，2020/2021年將新開門店 80/100家，在進一步拓展一、二線門店數量的同時，還將適當下沉至周邊市場。作為集團盈利性最好的品牌， 太二收入佔比的提升也將助公司整體盈利水平獲得持續改善。其他品牌由於疫情影響，預期 2020 年的開店規劃將趨於保守。
首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價 12港元：我們認為，酸菜魚和西北菜都屬於受眾較廣，未來增速較快的細分賽道，公司經過 20 多年的深耕經營，已建立起高度標準化且易複製的商業模式，加上充裕的在手現金、經驗豐富的管理團隊、有效的激勵機制及嚴格的品控都將成就公司的高增速。我們預計公司 2020-2022 年 EPS 分別 0.14/0.32/0.47元，給予公司 2021 年目標價 12 港元，對應 2021年 34 倍 PE，0.6倍 PEG，較現價有 32.9%的漲幅空間，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
