《大行報告》摩通下調匯控(00005.HK)目標價至42元 削今年股盈預測47%
摩根大通發表報告表示,雖然認為匯豐控股(00005.HK)管理層推動策略長遠正確,但基於收入增長承壓,包括美國息率前景、宏觀經濟存不明朗等,不預期匯控於今年的有形本回報率可達11%。
該行表示,重申對匯控「中性」投資評級,下調其目標價30%,由60元降至42元,料今年股本回報率為7%,資本成本9.5%,現股價相當於今年預測市賬率0.82倍,認為其股價上行空間有限。
摩通表示,下調對匯控今年每股經調整盈利預測47%,由原來0.67美元降至0.36元美元,並下降其明年每股經調整盈利預測16%,由原來0.7美元降至0.58美元。該行估計匯控於今年不派息、估計其2021年及2022年每股股息均為0.51美元。
該行指,基於以經濟衰退作基本情境假設下,決定下調對匯控於2020年至2022年每股盈利預測各47%、16%及9%,因信貸成本急升及淨利息收入下降。該行估計全球今年GDP將收縮2.4%,料英國、香港及中國內地按年各跌3.7%、跌1.8%及升1.1%(去年各升1.4%、跌1.2%及升6.1%)。
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