中國新華教育(02779.HK)2019年報點評：業績平穩增長，維持“買入”評級
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
◆主營業務收入增長13.4%，在手現金充裕。新華教育FY2019總收益5.53億元（+15.8%），主營業務收入4.38億元（+13.4%）。其中學費收入3.92億元（14.76%），住宿費收入0.46億元（2.69%）；後勤培訓等服務收入5710萬元（+11.2%）。調整後淨利潤為2.96億元（+14.4%）。收入增長主要因為在校學生人數和平均學費的增加。公司擁有現金及現金等價物約14億元，資金儲備充裕。
◆公司運營4所學校，新招人數與在校人數雙增長。新招全日制學生1.25萬人次（+41.1%）。其中原有學校1.02萬人次（+15.6%）、紅山學院2291人次。公司在校生總人數超過4.52萬人次（+30.2%），其中新華學院2.89萬人次（-0.19%）、新華學校5,583人次（+5.94%）、臨牀醫學院1,751人次（+204%）、紅山學院9,054人次。臨牀醫學院學生人數倍增，公司併購整合能力有望進一步凸顯。
◆學費穩步提升，盈利能力持續向好。新華學院四年制本科課程學費提升至19,800–23,800元，繼續教育課程學費提升至2,400–11,900；新華學校普通專科課程學費提升至9,000–11,400元，其他兩所學校學費保持不變。公司2019年淨資產回報率達11.3%（+0.4pct），毛利率59.7%，盈利能力保持穩定顯示公司的品牌效應與內涵建設效果。
◆成功收購紅山學院，外延併購實現突破。2019年新華教育正式收購南京財經大學紅山學院，提供本科層次教育。公司在2019年持續落實重點佈局醫科、新商科的外延發展規劃，整合優質資源的能力顯現。考慮到公司預付的4.88億元現金，截止19年底公司在手現金約18億元。另外公司與工商銀行協議未來5年意向性累計提供不低於人民幣50億元的授信支持。
◆維持“買入”評級。由於公司暫時暫停收購海源學院的影響，我們下調20-21年的調整後淨利潤預測為3.26/3.57億元，新增22年調整後淨利潤預測為3.89億元。20-22年淨利潤增速分別為9.97%/9.58%/9.08%。2020年EV/EBITDA為5x，我們認為公司內生外延增長可期，維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：教學質量下滑、教育政策變動、外延擴張策略不達預期。
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