锦欣生殖(01951.HK)：扩展老挝业务，重申“买入”评级，目标价5.4港元
机构：招商银行
评级：买入
目标价：5.4港元
锦欣宣布收购老挝瑞亚国际医学中心的辅助生殖服务经营许可，扩展辅助生殖业务范围以满足中国患者多元化的需求。我们预期由2020年二季度开始，老挝诊所将为公司带来收入，于20/21财年分别贡献收入1,700/4,900万人民币。我们略微上调20/21财年盈利预测1%/2%，以反映老挝医学中心贡献的收入，并调整DCF模型，目标价上调至15.4港元。重申买入评级。
老挝辅助生殖诊所受益于宽松的监管环境。锦欣宣布自独立第三方瑞亚国际医学中心（「瑞亚」）收购经营IVF（体外受精）的经营许可。公司计划于老挝设立一间获许可进行IVF的新医学中心，面积约为5,000平方米，预期提供多项服务，包括IVF-ET（体外受精及胚胎移植）、ICSI（卵细胞浆内单精子注射）、PGS（植入前基因筛查）/PGD（植入前遗传学诊断）、第三方IVF、各种IVF技术及治疗选择以及卵子及精子冷冻保存。新医学中心预计产能超过3,000个IVF治疗周期。我们估计新医学中心将在22年达到1,000个治疗周期，平均每个治疗周期价格为80,000-100,000元人民币。新医学中心毗邻中国，可从云南省昆明以约四个小时的高鐵车程到达，迎合中国医疗旅游的需求。
上调20/21财年盈利预测1%/2%。我们预计位于老挝的医学中心将于20/21财年分别进行200/550个IVF治疗周期，平均每个治疗周期的治疗成本为85,000/89,250元人民币（中国国内平均成本为50,000元人民币），主要因老挝的医学中心能够提供更多增值服务。我们预期老挝业务在20/21财年贡献收入1,700/4,900万人民币，因此上调20/21财年收入预测1%/2%，以及净利润预测1%/2%。?维持买入评级，新目标价15.4港元。我们预计锦欣于18-21财年实现36.9%收入复合年增长率，主要得益于稳健的内生增长，以及与收购公司并表。锦欣手头拥有现金约30亿元人民币，为收购提供充足的资金。基于8年DCF模型（WACC：9.5%，终值增长率：4%），我们得出目标价15.4港元。
催化剂：收购优质资产；风险：内生增长疲软
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