越秀地產(0123.HK)：新模式下煥發新活力，首次評級覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價2.30港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：2.30港元
投資要點
首次評級覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價2.30港元。
越秀地產完成了“一超三強”的全國化佈局，銷售規模加速增長，引入廣州地鐵後，通過“軌交+物業”等多元方式擴充土儲，同時公司擁有通暢的融資渠道和超低的融資成本。我們預計公司2019-2021年的營業收入為327.3/414.9/534.3億元，同比增長23.8%/26.7%/28.8%；核心淨利潤為34.2/42.5/53.3億元，同比增長25.3%/24.4%/25.5%。首次評級覆蓋公司給予“買入”評級，目標價2.30港元，基於2020/2021年7.5倍和6.0倍PE，較公司的NAV折讓20%，較當前股價還有42%的上升空間。
多元拿地，“軌交+物業”鎖定優質土儲：
越秀地產土地儲備的特色：1）以廣州為核心，聚焦大灣區，廣州的土儲佔比、銷售貢獻都是公司最大；2）精選高能級二線城市，實現全國化佈局；3）多元化拿地方式，包括公開市場、國企合作、三舊改造、產業拿地、母公司土地注入等，通過引入廣州地鐵，更實現了“軌交+物業”鎖定優質土儲。截止2019H1，公司總土儲超過2152萬平米。
銷售加速，“一超三強”全國化佈局完成：
公司形成了“一超三強”的全國化佈局，“一超”即以廣州為核心的粵港澳大灣區區域，三強分別為以杭州為中心的長三角區域、以武漢為中心的中部區域，以青島為中心的環渤海區域。公司的合約銷售加速增長，截止2019年達到721億元，同比增長25%，2016-2019年的年複合增速達到34%。
商住並舉，“開發-運營-金融”模式領先：越秀地產堅持“住商並舉”戰略，將商業地產發展作為促進集團業績增長的穩定器。通過“開發+運營+金融”模式，與旗下上市的越秀房託協同，資金迅速回流。
財務穩健，融資渠道和成本優勢明顯：
公司擁有行業超低的融資成本4.76%，多元的融資渠道，以及風險可控的槓桿水平（淨負債率約60%）。
風險提示：宏觀經濟增長放緩；行業調控政策加嚴；流動性收緊；公司銷售不及預期；人民幣貶值
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