金隅集團(2009.HK)：20財年一季度盈利所受衝擊有限，物業開發業務有望錄得較佳表現，重申「增持」評級，目標價2.91港元
機構：銀河國際
評級：增持
目標價2.91港元
由於一季度對華北地區而言是淡季，新冠肺炎疫情對金隅集團的盈利影響極微。
■我們認為，隨着政策環境有望變得更為有利，公司物業預售有潛力改善。
■在2019年，金隅集團表現弱於其他主要水泥股，但如果其物業預售表現改善，我們認為股份今年有望補漲。
■我們將20/21財年的每股盈利預測上調5.8％/13.8％，以反映水泥業務前景轉好，因為我們預計短期內當局將推出強勁的財政刺激措施。
■重申「增持」評級，最新目標價為2.91港元。
新冠肺炎疫情對全年利潤的影響或有限
公司一季度整體盈利所受的影響將有限，因為對於華北物業開發業務和水泥生產的收入入賬而言，一季度是為淡季。由於天氣寒冷，一季度的建築活動通常也很少。例如，金隅集團19財年一季度的淨利潤僅佔全年利潤的11％左右。
財政刺激措施讓盈利可見度更高
自2月中旬以來，湖北以外地區的每天新確診新冠肺炎宗數已大大減少。這有助建築活動和水泥需求逐步復甦。我們預計3月中旬以後水泥需求將回升。此外，我們預計當局將很快出台更多財政刺激措施，以支持全年GDP實現5％或以上增長（2020年一季度預料僅為2.8-3.9％）（請參閲今天發佈的策略報告以瞭解詳細信息）。基建投資上升，將導致行業週期延長，並提升盈利可見度。因此，我們將20/21財年的每股盈利預測提高5.8％/13.8％。
政策放寬或有助物業預售額改善
公司在19財年首三季錄得物業合約銷售額137億人民幣，遠低於全年目標350億人民幣。管理層解釋指，這部分是由於政策調控所致。但是，我們預計當局今年將放寬政策以緩和疫情的影響，這將有助提升金隅集團今年的物業預售額。
重申增持評級股份有補漲潛力
我們將建材業務的目標市淨率從0.7倍提高至0.8倍以反映盈利前景改善，據此我們的分類加總目標價從2.73港元上調至2.91港元。重申「增持」評級。在過去12個月，其他主要水泥股錄得高雙位數回報，相比之下金隅集團的表現較滯後。但是，如果政策得到放寬並提振物業預售，相信股份今年有補漲機會。
風險：隨着越來越多工人返崗工作，城市變得越來越擁擠，每天新確診的新冠肺炎宗數大幅回升。
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