《大行報告》中金:內房股配置價值顯現 料政策正向空間逐漸打開
中金發表報告表示,內房行業基本面短期受到疫情負面影響,但料在政策支撐下將自第二季度開始修復,全年呈「V」型走勢,整體難看到顯著風險,指配置價值顯現,料政策正向空間逐漸打開。該行預計,內房商銷售表現3月將進入「V」型底部(按年跌幅未必如2月深,但3月單月權重更高,對整體表現帶來的拖拽更大),若疫情在3月基本結束,銷售的按年跌幅二季度將不斷收窄,至下半年同比轉正,全國新房銷售面積全年預計下降約5%。若疫情持續時間更長、至4月漸近尾聲,料「V」型的底部可能更深更久,而政策的反饋力度也將更強,在此情形下全年跌幅將加深至約10%,但進一步下行的空間有限。中金認為,內房政策積極調整空間逐漸打開,重點正逐步由「渡難關」轉向「托需求」。近期多地密集出台樓市支持性政策,此前措施主要立足於緩解房企短期現金流壓力,目前政策重點正逐漸轉向「托需求」。接下來在「因城施策」框架下各地限購、限貸、限價等措施可能出現適度鬆動,近期已有相關地方政策出台(如深圳、福州、南寧、浙江省等),後續料將有更多城市跟進。最近房企頻頻發債進行再融資,資金面壓力進一步緩解。該行指,繼續看多內房股。目前板塊估值及倉位仍處底部,認為政策的持續邊際向好將帶動估值回歸合理水平,行業基本面短期雖承壓但全年維度風險可控,龍頭房企韌性更強,內房H股推薦融創(01918.HK)、世茂(00813.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK),此外時代(01233.HK)和美的(03990.HK)受盈利支撐業績期料將有不錯表現,建議積極關注。 該行稱,所覆蓋內房H股標估值相當於2020年市盈率6.3倍、股價較每股資產淨值折讓40%,行業即將進入業績期,個股公司運營鋪排及增長前景清晰度將得到進一步加強。
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