三一國際(0631.HK):寬體車和純水液壓支架保障業績持續增長,給於“買入”評級,目標價提高至5.78港元
機構:興業證券
評級:買入
目標價:5.78港元

投資要點:
2019年業績增長強勁。公司2019年前三個季度收入同比增長29.2%至43.6億元,淨利潤同比增長54.6%至7.9億元,經營現金流從上年的0.92億元大幅提高至7.36億元人民幣,我們預計公司2019年全年將持續前三季度的增長趨勢。
寬體車2019年開始放量。2019年公司寬體車銷量預計約為400台左右 ,收入實現翻倍式的增長,目前寬體車行業每年銷量約為一萬多台,同力和玲瓏重機佔有市場近50%市場份額,公司佔有行業的市場份額非常低,依靠三一重工強大的銷售團隊支持,該業務還有大幅擴張市場份額的潛力,且隨着公司的規模效益逐步顯現,該板塊的毛利率也將逐步改善。
純水液壓支架開始加大應用。公司純水液壓支架於2018年交付首套之後,2019年未有落地的項目,隨着客户開發的深入,預計2020年將交付2套帶純水液壓支架的綜採設備,收入預計能達到5億元人民幣左右,且純水液壓支架產品毛利率高於傳統的支架產品。
我們的觀點:我們將公司2019-2021年收入預測調低8.9%、5%和4.7%;2019年利潤調低5%、2020年預測利潤不變及2021年利潤提高3.8%。主要反映2019年大港機業務推進比我們預期的要慢,目前公司大港機在手訂單約為12億多,因此對於2020年業績有一定的支撐。預計公司2019-2021年營收分別為人民幣56.5、75和93.2億元,股東淨利潤分別為9.16、13.5和16.7億元,EPS分別為0.30、0.43和0.53元,我們給於公司買入評級,目標價從4.13港元提高至5.78港元,對應2020年12倍PE。
風險提示:煤價大幅下跌,煤炭行業固定資產投資大幅下降。
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