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萬科A(000002.SZ):雙重風險解除後的明天 ——對萬科股東權益變動的點評
格隆匯 12-20 11:41

作者:謝皓宇、白淑媛 

來源: 小謝看地產

摘要

股權減持壓力解除,鉅盛華和前海人壽還持有萬科5%的股票,大家人壽保險持股也在5%以下;2018年和2019年前三季度分別計提23.5億元、16.5億元資產減值損失來平滑業績,後續業績將超預期。

1、維持增持評級

萬科作為國內住宅開發龍頭,產品溢價能力及適應市場的能力較強;維持公司2019/2020/2021EPS3.82/4.52/5.52元,同比增長28%/19%/22%,維持目標價41.35元,現價對應20198PE。

2、股權減持壓力解除,鉅盛華和前海人壽還持有萬科5%的股票,大家人壽保險持股比例也在5%以下

20191127日至1219日,鉅盛華和前海人壽通過集中競價交易方式合計減持萬科A股股票5.65億股,佔万科總股本的5.00%。本次權益變動後,鉅盛華持有萬科4.03億股,佔比萬科總股本3.57%,前海人壽持有萬科1.62億股,佔比萬科總股本1.43%,兩者合計持有萬科5.00%的股票。此外,今年9月大家人壽保險通過ETF換股後,持有萬科4.29%的股票,至此兩大保險持股比例均在5%以下

3、2018年和2019年前三季度分別計提23.5億元、16.5億元資產減值損失來平滑業績,後續業績將超預期

2018年公司計提資產減值損失23.5億元,大約影響當年税後淨利潤17.7億元,影響當年歸母淨利潤11.7億元;2019年前三季度報公司計提16.5億的存貨減值,影響當年税後淨利潤12.4億元,影響當年歸母淨利潤8.5億元。而且前三季度,公司計提的減值損失同比減少49%,因此未來隨着存貨減值的計提減少,公司業績也會超預期。

風險提示:市場景氣度進一步下行。

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