金山軟件(03888.HK)：業績好於預期，WPS、雲相繼上市提振信心，維持“買入”評級，目標價23.9港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：23.9港元
核心觀點：19Q3財報好於預期
19Q3實現收入20.23億元（+40.7%），歸母淨利0.36億元。毛利率40.7%，環比提升2.6pct，三項費用率同比均收窄，研發費用率環比持平，銷售費用率和行政費用率環比略增長。
3項業務均好於預期：雲保持高增長，毛利轉正，虧損率繼續縮窄；WPS增長強勁，發展勢頭很好；遊戲收入降幅好於預期雲業務：19Q3收入同比+61.8%實現9.76億，視頻仍是增長最快的細分行業，金融雲、政務雲處於高增長階段；毛利率和虧損率較年初超預期，Q3毛利轉正，虧損率繼續縮窄。2019年收入預計同比+70%，2020年預計保持高增長。根據今日公告，金山雲將分拆上市。
WPS：收入實現3.83億，同比+50%，個人版收入增長強勁，截至9月付費用户達670萬，同比增長120%。預計全年收入同比增長35%~40%；運營利潤率維持20%+，略有回調，主要是19年研發投入加大。受益於國產化趨勢，2B授權業務預計會有強勁增長。金山辦公即將在科創板上市，根據最新公告，按發行價計算市值為211億元人民幣，同時上市引入騰訊、移動、聯通、中網投等戰投。
遊戲：實現收入6.63億元，同比下降2%，全年預計好於預期。《劍網3》端遊收入19Q3環比正增長，20年預計維持穩定態勢。《劍網3》手遊更新版預計未來2~3個月上線；《雙生視界》於9月在日本上線，國內即將上線。儲備3+3遊戲，3款（《劍歌行》《魔域3D》《卧龍吟》）達到上線標準，將為20年貢獻增量，3款有望20年上線。
維持“買入”評級，上調合理價值為23.9港元/股
預計19~20年歸母淨利為-14.17億元、3.34億元。按2020年盈利預測及最新匯率進行估值並上調WPS估值，根據SOTP，合理價值為23.9港元/股。辦公和雲發展勢頭好，WPS受益於國產化趨勢，金山雲受益於5G，分拆上市提振投資信心；遊戲預期較低。截至19Q3公司擁有現金及銀行存款近90億元。
風險提示
老遊戲流水自然回落，新遊不及預期；WPS在科創板估值波動不確定，2C業務增長不及預期；雲服務市場競爭導致虧損擴大。
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