比亞迪電子(0285.HK)：組裝業務加速增長，帶動結構件份額提升，維持“審慎增持”評級，目標價15.5港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價：15.5港元
投資要點
組裝帶動收入加速增長，利潤環比大幅改善。2019年第三季度，公司收入151億元（+51.4%）（人民幣，下同），淨利潤4.5億元（-32.4%），毛利率7.0%（-5.2pps），淨利率3.0%（-3.7pps）。公司二季度受華為訂單影響利潤下滑嚴重，但目前情況已經基本恢復，三季度公司利潤環比大幅改善，較一季度也提升16.3%。
華為訂單影響自8月份基本消除。二季度，華為受美國製裁取消部分訂單，是公司二季度利潤大幅下滑的主要原因。目前看8月份起華為訂單恢復到了之前的水平，預計四季度華為業務量環比仍有提升。
5G時代，金屬、玻璃結構件的需求前景樂觀。金屬結構件（中框）主要應用在中高端機型，5G帶動的換機潮將首先拉動高端機型換機，有利於帶動金屬結構件的滲透率提升。玻璃（後蓋板）結構件由於原材料降價的原因，客户採用的積極性提升，有望向中低端機型快速滲透。5G時代，“金屬中框+玻璃蓋板”將成為主流的結構件方案。
組裝業務規模擴大助力結構件份額提升。公司在華為手機組裝的份額持續提升，並且新進華為5G基站及服務器、蘋果核心產品的組裝製造供應鏈。組裝業務規模的擴大有望助力公司2020年營收衝刺1000億目標，2024年衝刺2000億目標。組裝業務利潤率較低，但有利於維護和大客户的良好關係，在高利潤率的結構件上取得更大的份額，具有重要的戰略意義。
投資建議：我們預計公司2019/20/21年營收為559/1011/1226億元，同比增長36.3%/80.8%/21.2%，歸母淨利潤為15.8/26.2/36.1億元，同比增長-27.8%/65.8%/37.7%。公司的盈利前景確定性增強，我們按2020年12倍PE給予估值，上調目標價31.4%至15.5港元，維持“審慎增持”評級。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
