中國人壽(601628.SH)：新單與投資共振，推動NBV穩增長
作者：沈娟，陶聖禹
來源：華泰金融研究全新平台
核心觀點
1
利潤增速持續擴大，“重振國壽”穩步推進
公司2019年前三季度歸母淨利潤577億元，YoY+190.4%，主要系投資回暖與税改效應共同拉動，增速較中期擴大62pct。保費收入4970億元，YoY+6.1%，其中Q3保費增速大幅改善，單季實現10.1%正增長（19Q2單季增速為-8.5%）。我們認為在“重振國壽”戰略推進下，公司基本面持續穩健向好，根據最新業績向上調整盈利預測，預計2019-21年EPS分別為2.10/2.46/3.07元，較前期增幅約30%-40%，維持“買入”評級。
2
產品結構持續改善，新單提振促NBV穩健增長
1-9月總新單實現1622億元，YoY+6.5%，19Q3單季增速達27.6%，環比二季度-13%的表現顯著改善。其中首年期交991億元，YoY+4.7%，其中19Q3單季增速高達23.5%，較19Q2增速（-20%）大幅改善，推動首年期交佔長險首年提升8.45pct至98.07%。期限與產品結構也顯著優化，十年期佔首年期交增長16pct至51%，負債端久期持續拉長；特定保障型產品佔首年期交提升8.79pct。NBV維持穩健增長，但增速較中期收窄2.3pct至20.4%，我們認為在總新單邊際改善的背景下，Margin呈現小幅下滑趨勢。業務品質持續改善，退保率同比下滑2.8pct至1.67%。
3
銷售人力良性發展，慣性效應下產能釋放空間可觀
在新單銷售樂觀的環境下，代理人自然增員節奏加速，9月末個險營銷員規模達166.3萬人，較6月末增長5.7%，較年初增速擴大至15.6%。公司降低躉交業務KPI考核權重，更加註重期限結構轉型，代理人在價值指引下產能逐步抬升，月均有效銷售人力同比提升37.4%，月均銷售特定保障險產品人力同比提升49.2%。我們認為高質量人力儲備對於明年開門紅有望產生積極催化效應，慣性效應下產能釋放空間可觀。
4
投資收益大幅增長，已率先啟動開門紅
公司在“鼎新工程”推進下，不斷推進投資管理體系市場化改革，通過靈活資產配置實現投資收益大幅提升，前三季度總投資收益率與淨投資收益率分別同比提升2.31pct和0.21pct至5.72%和4.83%，投資表現超出預期。公司也已啟動2020年開門紅，鑫享至尊產品已實現300餘億元新單銷售，已超去年同檔產品並計劃進一步擴大規模，對應萬能賬户的結算利率的同比提升進一步增強了產品競爭力。
5
税改新規助推長遠發展，維持“買入”評級
税改新規對公司利好持續釋放，前三季度有效税率僅為6%的低位水平，利於公司費用投入與業務發展。根據最新業績調整盈利預測，預計2019-21年EVPS分別為32.61元、37.85元和43.94元（前值分別為33.10元、38.12元和43.86元）。對應P/EV為0.95x、0.82x和0.70x。可比公司平均估值為0.97x，考慮到公司“重振國壽”戰略清晰，我們給予2019年1.1-1.2xP/EV，目標價格區間35.87~39.13元，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：保障險業務推進力度不及預期，利率下行帶來潛在的利差損風險，權益市場波動導致投資收益增長的不確定性。
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