【招商食品】涪陵榨菜:基本面底部改善,把握估值修復
作者:楊勇勝/於佳琦
來源: 招商食品飲料
榨菜Q3收入/營業利潤/歸母淨利潤增速分別為8%/2%/-7%,利潤表表現略超市場預期,預收賬款高基數下回落,報表總體與渠道口徑相吻合。Q3毛利率受成本紅利強化,高渠道和品牌投入下銷售費用率上升較多。綜合考慮一批商出貨逐步轉正、渠道庫存下降,我們判斷公司基本面基本企穩,渠道調整接近尾聲。雖然終端需求仍然較為疲軟,但公司應對較差的市場環境,正發揮着更強的主觀能動性,研發、市場投入利好後續發力,維持長期穩定增長。當前估值相對調味品板塊整體、公司ROE水平均有一定折價,同時接近歷史估值底部,具有一定安全邊際,建議關注超跌機會,我們略調整19-20年EPS為0.86、0.96(前次0.9、1.02),考慮到估值切換,上調目標價至27元(對應明年28X),維持“審慎推薦—A”評級。
報告正文
榨菜Q3收入/營業利潤/歸母淨利潤增速分別為8%/2%/-7%。2019前三季度總收入16.04億元,同比增長3.8%,營業利潤6.11億元,增長3.3%,歸母淨利潤5.18億元,下降1.0%。其中2019Q3收入5.18億元,同比增長7.6%,營業利潤2.39億元,增長2.2%,歸母淨利潤2.03億元,下降6.8%。Q3現金回款6.14億元,同比下降1.3%,主要系去年高基數影響。經營性現金流量淨額2.1億元,同比去年減少0.5億元。主要系本期支付的推廣費用和運輸費增加。
成本紅利保障毛利抬升,銷售費用繼續加大。成本紅利下,公司19Q3毛利率提升2.7%至60%,銷售費用同比增加3300萬,費用率提升5.7%至13.7%,預計與渠道裂變、品牌贊助等方面的投入相關。值得一提的是,今年公司研發投入同比明顯加大,預計與新品開發加快有關。Q3營業利潤率略有增強,但由於營業外收入基數過高,導致歸母淨利潤負增長。
基本面企穩,樂觀的種子在發芽。今年Q3預收賬款1.3億,同比減少5500萬,假設預收賬款同比持平,收入仍有小個位數下滑,這與我們渠道跟蹤口徑一致。草根調研反饋,雖然Q3出貨乏力,但渠道庫存已經下降至合理水平,我們推測一批商出貨已經恢復正增長。雖然Q2-Q3公司在業績、股價的表現平平,但我們看到公司整體呈現企穩態勢,基本面風險因子“庫存水平”、股價風險因子“估值”均處於合理及以下水平,公司在研發、市場建設上高投入利好未來發展,我們建議在此時點,對公司可以更加樂觀看待。
調整以待新發,關注超跌機會,維持“審慎推薦-A”評級。榨菜Q3利潤表表現略超市場預期,綜合考慮銷售情況、庫存水平,我們判斷公司基本面基本企穩,渠道調整接近尾聲,雖然終端需求仍然較為疲軟,但公司應對較差的市場環境,正發揮着更強的主觀能動性,研發、市場投入利好後續發力,維持長期穩定增長。當前估值相對調味品板塊整體、公司ROE水平均有一定折價,同時接近歷史估值底部,具有一定安全邊際。我們略調整19-20年EPS為0.86、0.96(前次0.9、1.02),考慮到估值切換,上調目標價至27元(對應明年28X),維持“審慎推薦—A”評級。
風險提示:經濟低迷消費走弱,上游成本波動


參考報告
1、《涪陵榨菜(002507)—成本紅利持續,期待下沉及新品》2019-03-22
2、《涪陵榨菜(002507)—收入環比略降速,業績彈性持續釋放》2018-10-26
3、《涪陵榨菜(002507)—成本+提價利好業績,高增邏輯持續驗證》2018-07-29
附:財務預測表

Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.