科鋭國際（300662.SZ）：三季度收入維持較快增長，宏觀經濟壓力加大拖累業績增速
作者：葉樂
來源：中信建投中小市值
事件
公司發佈三季報：2019年前三季度實現收入26.16億元，同增80.14%；歸母淨利潤1.15億元，同增24.81%；扣非歸母淨利潤1.02億元，同增23.53%；經營性現金流822.65萬元，同降79.30%；ROE（加權）為14.81%，同增1.02個百分點。
簡評
三季度業績增速放緩，單季度歸母淨利潤5062.5萬元，同增14.43%，處於三季度業績預告範圍的中位數水平。受宏觀經濟壓力增大和中美貿易摩擦影響，三季度國內GDP同增6.0%，較一、二季度6.4%和6.2%的水平進一步放緩。公司的中高端人才招聘和RPO業務亦受到一定影響，3Q19公司收入9.41億元，同增29.53%。剔除Investigo後，3Q19營收同增40.1%、略低於1H19的47.5%增速。
管理層調整，加快海外業務拓展。報告期內，海外市場佔集團營收比重達到36%。為推進公司國際化戰略佈局，加快海外市場業務拓展，公司原總經理GUO XIN先生辭去公司總經理職務，改任國際業務總裁專門負責海外業務運營。公司現任董事長、高勇先生（控股股東及實際控制人之一）兼任總經理一職。
各項業務佈局持續推進，靈活用工前景廣闊。截止2019年9月底，公司共管理外派員工約1.45萬人，同增39.4%；成功為客户推薦中高端管理人員和專業技術崗位超2.2萬人，同增46.7%；外包累計派出人員11.7萬人次，較1H19提高53.7%（3個月時間）。伴隨公司在人事、行政、財務等辦公室崗位，以及醫藥研發、零售、工廠等專業化崗位確立了靈活用工行業領先標準及領導市場地位，預計未來將繼續領跑大陸地區靈活用工市場，充分享受經濟不確定背景下靈活用工行業高增長。
盈利預測：考慮到宏觀經濟壓力較大，下調公司業績預測。預計2019、2020年公司歸母淨利潤分別為1.43、1.77億元，同比增長21.6%、23.3%，對應PE為39、32倍。維持“增持”評級。
風險提示：宏觀經濟壓力增大、中美貿易摩擦持續
附：盈利預測表
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