平安銀行(000001.SZ)：利潤高速增長，零售持續升級
作者：沈娟，蔣昭鵬
來源：華泰金融研究全新平台
核心觀點
1
利潤增速再提升，維持“買入”評級
平安銀行1-9月歸母淨利潤同比+15.5%，較1-6月上升0.3pct，業績符合我們預期。公司戰略轉型顯成效，息差和資產質量穩健，我們對其持續看好。預測公司2019-2021年歸母淨利潤增速15.6%/16.8%/17.2%，EPS1.48/1.73/2.02元，目標價18.61~19.89元，維持“買入”評級。
2
營收增速微升，累計息差平穩
1-9月營收、PPOP分別同比+18.8%、19.0%，增速較1-6月提升0.3pct、持平。1-9月淨息差為2.62%，與1-6月持平；Q3息差雖然高於Q1，但低於Q2，主要受貸款拖累。1-9月貸款收益率較1-6月下降4bp，其中對公貸款（不含貼現）下降14bp，受對公定價整體走低影響（尤其是LPR改革後）。負債端計息負債成本率繼續降低，1-9月為2.67%，較1-6月-2bp。得益於銀行同業市場資金寬裕，同業負債成本率繼續顯著下行（尤其是同業存單）；存款成本控制較好，1-9月平均成本率較1-6月下降1bp至2.48%。
3
資產增速提升，私行繼續發力
9月末資產增速為10.6%，較6月末上升4.0pct。貸款增速微降，投資類資產佔總資產比例有所提升，存款同比增速降至個位數（8.4%）。發力對公成效顯現，對公貸款（含貼現）增速提升至4.5%（6月末為0.8%）。票據融資是現階段投放對公資產的主要方式，Q3新增票據貼現佔新增貸款的56%，而一般企業貸款壓縮，體現了對公風險偏好審慎。零售繼續向高端客羣發力。零售貸款同比增速降至17.7%，但私行客户數量同比增速繼續提升至55.5%。私行AUM佔零售客户AUM的35.8%，較6月末提升0.9pct，後續存款沉澱、中間收入貢獻（1-9月中收增速達17.4%）預計可觀。
4
資產質量平穩，資本短板補齊
資產質量保持基本平穩。9月末不良貸款率、撥備覆蓋率分別為1.68%、186%，較6月末持平、+3pct；Q3年化不良貸款生成率2.10%，較Q2微降6bp；不良貸款偏離度繼續下降至87%。對公貸款（含貼現）不良率環比+6bp，我們認為是受到了不良貸款處置力度邊際減弱的影響，無論同比、環比，Q3的不良等效核銷率都下降明顯。零售不良率環比-2bp，消費貸款風險控制良好。但同時我們注意到受經濟下行壓力影響，逾期90天以內貸款佔比環比+12bp至0.88%。得益於轉債贖回條款的觸發，資本壓力大幅緩解，核心一級資本充足率環比+86bp達9.75%，高居股份行第3。
5
看好長期成長性，目標價18.61~19.89元
我們看好公司作為鋭意改革的零售銀行的長期成長邏輯，我們維持原預測2019-2021年歸母淨利潤增速15.6%/16.8%/17.2%，2019年BVPS12.83元（考慮股本擴大），對應PB1.32倍。股份行2019年一致預測PB為0.82倍，公司作為零售轉型推進最快的股份行，估值可參考零售龍頭銀行招商銀行（2019年Wind一致預測PB為1.60倍），我們給予2019年目標PB1.45~1.55倍，目標價由16.53~17.97元上調至18.61~19.89元。
風險提示：經濟下行超預期，資產質量惡化超預期。
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