哔哩哔哩(BILI.US) ：Z世代乐园迎来获客调整，用户规模指引上调，亏损随投入扩大
机构：方正证券
事件：
19Q2营收15.38亿元（YoY+50%，QoQ+12%），高于一致预期3.2%，超出业绩指引上限3.2%；营业亏损3.45亿元，归母净亏损3.13亿元。
点评:
1.品牌推广、技术提升及渠道投放将推动平台用户规模快速增长，管理层预计用户规模于2021年突破2.2亿；巩固PUGV优势，储备和发展OGV，打造丰富内容库。19Q2哔哩哔哩MAU达1.104亿，DAU达3,320万。
Q2推出“Vlog星制造”，上线互动视频；自制纪录片《人生一串II》再获好评，参与出品《三体》动画版；购入《哈利·波特》等经典作品版权。
2.《FGO》流水环比下滑，游戏收入增长疲软，《重装战姬》上线，及《FGO》活动有望推动Q3收入环比提升；立足二次元、游戏生态，及Up主粉丝经济，直播变现规模持续扩大。《FGO》和《明日方舟》贡献游戏营收增长；《明日方舟》5月上线，上线两月就位列“2019H1国区游戏最强吸金能力（iOS）Top100”的第9，通过哔哩哔哩渠道在安卓端下载游戏的玩家数量已超过300万，《重装战姬》7月上线，联同《FGO》限时活动有望推动游戏收入Q3环比增长。直播和增值业务实现快速增长，直播连接创作者与粉丝，借助游戏及电竞内容优势，直播内容有望或更大突破。
3.游戏收入占比持续下降，毛利率同比下滑；公司调整战略积极扩大用户规模，销售费用率保持高位，亏损扩大。公司将通过品牌、技术和渠道等方式加快用户获取速度，预计19Q3、Q4的销售费用占比将达到19%-20%。4.盈利预测与估值：我们预计公司2019-2021营收为6,566/9,208/12,182百万元，经调整净利润为-931/609/330百万元，经调整摊薄EPS-3.20/-2.20/1.23元，对应当前P/S为4.9/3.5/2.7X，对应单用户估值为41美元。
我们谨慎看待公司调整后的用户获取战略，我们认为公司的内容丰富度具备扩大用户规模的基础，但相应的规则调整对于核心二次元用户粘性，以及Up主内容创作意愿的影响仍然有待观察。我们上调了用户增长预测，用户流量的扩张将使平台进一步跻身一线视频平台，相应流量的变现也将推高收入规模，维持“推荐”评级。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
