中国食品(0506.HK):2019H1收入增长稳定,经营效率继续提升,维持“买入”评级,目标价3.97港元
机构:广发证券
评级:买入
目标价:3.97港元
核心观点:
2019年上半年营业收入95.5亿元人民币,净利润5.36亿元
除非特殊说明,本文货币均为人民币。2019H1收入95.5亿元,同比增长10%;毛利为33.9亿元,同比增长11%;净利润5.36亿元,同比增长19.5%;经调整EBIT7.05亿元,同比增长20%;毛利率上升0.5个百分点至35.5%;分销和销售支出比率下降1个百分点至26.1%;行政支出比率下降0.2个百分点至2.3%。
收入增长稳定,经营效率继续提升
公司收入增长主要由于销量增长、新品带动、包装及产品结构和价格的调整以及VAT降税贡献。2019H1碳酸饮料收入增长10%,增长主要由于无糖系列和纤维加系列带动。饮用水增长21%,饮用水主要由于纯悦的带动。功能饮料在拓宽销售渠道和增加营销投入带动下,收入取得翻倍增长。我们继续看好饮用水和功能饮料的增长。公司持续推进供应链的优化和整合,新厂和老厂利润率已经非常接近;公司新的CBMS系统有望继续帮助公司提升终端管理水平和拓宽销售渠道。
预计2019年-2021年EPS分别为人民币0.13、0.15和0.17元/股
公司受益于内生增长和产品结构升级推动营业收入和毛利率增长,我们预计公司2019-2021年的EPS分别为人民币0.13、0.15和0.17元/股,当前价格对应2019-2021年PE为21.99、19.36和17.11倍,基于DCF模型公司合理价值为3.97港元,维持“买入”评级。
风险提示:主要产品销售不及预期;原材料价格大幅上涨

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