中国科培(1890.HK)内生增长强势经营效率提升维持“买入”评级
机构：国盛证券
评级：买入
2019H1营收/净利同增27%/37%，盈利能力大幅提升。公司2019上半年实现收入3.59亿元，同增26.5%，其中学费收入同增27.5%。归母净利2.45亿元，同增37.3%，净利润增速大于收入增速主要由于：1）上半年毛利率提升2.1PCT至70.3%（平均学费增长）；2）其他收入4600万元，较去年同期增加利息收入、可转债调整等收益。综合使得净利率提升5.4PCTs至68.1%。公司旗下运营广东理工学院及肇庆市科技中等职业学校，截至2019H1两所学校学生人数达52,960名，同增29.5%。
本科及成人大学2019H1增量贡献显著。截至2019H1，广东理工学院在校人数44,702名，其中本科课程/成人大学/大专课程在校人数分别为19,977/17,115/7,610名，分别同增34.1%/83.4%/-18.3%，校外成人课程人次贡献显著；学费收入分别同增44.2%/39.5%/-4.6%。广东理工学院本科学费同比增加2000-3000元左右。肇庆专科学校在校人数8,258名，同增12.3%。广东理工学院将自2019/2020学年起开始提供专插本项目，并进一步扩展成人教育计划、职业课程考证范围，预计招收更多学生。
校区扩建及外延标的贡献未来增量。广东理工学院新鼎湖校区第三期建设预期将于2019年下半年竣工，可容纳人数增加逾3,000名学生。此外公司计划改造广东理工学院的高要校区，重点扩张及改造宿舍及配套设施，容纳约7,000名学生的宿舍建设将于2020年下半年竣工，上市所得款项主要用于有关扩张及改造工程。外延并购方面，公司积极寻找高教资源相对稀缺的华南、西南及其他地区，关注外延并购机会。
投资建议。公司是华南地区领先的民办高教公司，旗下学校质地优异，量价双升增长趋势有望延续，2019年9月进入港股通有望进一步提升流动性。基于2019上半年财报，我们上调2019/20/21年净利润至4.40/5.31/6.38（原预测值为4.10/4.96/5.96亿元），对应EPS0.22/0.27/0.32元，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：民促法送审稿尚未落地的政策不确定风险;在校人数增长不达预期；收购进度不达预期。
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