万洲国际(0288.HK)2H19中国业务承压美国业务预计复苏维持买入评级目标价10.0港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：买入
目标价：10.0 港元
投资要点
⚫ 主动提价+产品组合调整，2Q19 收入环比提速：1H19 公司收入 111.27 亿美 元，YoY-0.4%，略低于 Bloomberg 一致预期的 112.03 亿美元。2Q19 收入 58.45 亿美元，YoY+5.3%，环比提速。生猪出栏量 1058.2 万头，YoY+4.5%（1Q: +6.7%）；生猪屠宰量 2823.3 万头，YoY+1.4%（1Q: +6.4%）；肉制品销量 161 万公吨，YoY+0.4%（1Q: +0.4%）。分业务来看，1H19 肉制品收入 58.86 亿美元，同比-0.3%，占比 52.9%；生鲜猪肉收入 46.00 亿美元，YoY+0.2%， 占比 41.3%；生猪养殖收入 3.29 亿美元，YoY-17.1%，占比 3.0%。
⚫ 经营利润中国地区受猪价上涨而承压，美国地区 2Q 同比降幅收窄：1H19 中国地区经营利润 4.25 亿美元，YoY-10.3%，占比 55.4%，主要受猪价上涨 影响，肉制品经营利润下滑。美国地区经营利润 2.94 亿美元，YoY-10.9%， 占比 38.4%，2Q 经营利润 YoY-2.6%，降幅收窄。欧洲地区经营利润 0.46 亿 美元，YoY-27.0%，占比 6.2%。
⚫ 2Q19 业绩不及预期：1H19 公司归母净利润 5.69 亿美元，YoY+10.7%，低于 Bloomberg 一致预期 7%（6.12 亿美元），主要由于美国业务盈利不及预期。 生物公允价值调整前归母净利润 4.63 亿美元，YoY-16.9%；每股基本盈利 3.87 美仙，宣派中期股息每股 0.05 港元。
⚫ 我们的观点：1、美国业务预期仍然乐观，上半年美国养殖业务明显改善， 尽管屠宰价差仍不理想，但是随着下半年猪价上涨，屠宰也将实现盈利。墨 西哥已于 6 月恢复美国猪肉进口关税至 0，利于美国猪肉出口到墨西哥，帮 助消化美国国内多余供给，对猪价维持有利。2、中国肉制品业务方面享有 低价冻肉库存以备下半年猪价高位时使用，同时有进口优势，伴随肉制品提 价和产品结构调整策略，预计 2H19 肉制品的利润率稳定。3、中国猪瘟将带 来养殖和屠宰行业的整合，双汇是中国最大的屠宰企业，有望发挥规模效应， 提高市场份额。由于 1H19 业绩低于预期，我们下调公司 2019-2021 年净利 润 2.6%/9.4%/10.5%至 12.05/13.76/15.85 亿美元。相应下调目标价 9%至 10.0 港元，相当于 2019/2020 年 15.5/13.6 倍 PE，维持买入评级。
风险提示：食品安全及瘟疫；猪肉价格超预期波动；汇兑风险；贸易政策
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
