舜宇光学科技（2382.HK）2019年中报点评加速扩产显示充足订单量下半年业绩表现值得期待
作者：光大海外付天姿/吴柳燕
来源：EBoversea
◆1H19营收及净利润表现超预期，源自手机镜头业务强势上扬
1H19公司实现营收155.8亿元人民币，同比增长30%，较彭博一致预期的143.2亿高约9%，主要由于HLS业务增长超预期。盈利能力方面，HCM毛利率下跌导致整体毛利率同比下降1个百分点至18.4%。受毛利率下降影响，净利率同比下降0.7个百分点至9.2%，对应归母净利润14.3亿元人民币，同比增长20.4%，较彭博一致预期的13.3亿元高约8%。
◆HCM启动扩产显示2H19订单量充足，驱动HCM业务维持快速成长
1H19 HCM出货量同比上升21%，同时得益潜望式等高端模组放量，ASP分别同比/环比上升5%/27%表现优于同业，驱动HCM营收同比增长27%；然受新项目良率爬坡、自动化导入影响，毛利率分别同比/环比下降3.5/1.6个百分点至5.9%。HCM启动扩产，规划由65KK扩大至年底的75KK/月，显示在手客户订单量超预期，缓解市场对其受华为大客户影响CCM出货量不及预期的担忧。公司维持指引出货增速区间20%-25%，驱动2019年摄像模组业务营收维持较快增长；同时伴随新项目良率提升、自动化改造步入正轨，下半年HCM毛利率有望环比改善。
◆手机镜头业务强势上扬，车载镜头延续稳健增长
1H19光学零件业务毛利率同比上升2.1个百分点至44.1%，由于HLS结构升级及规模效应凸显。1H19 HLS业务强势上扬，同比上升69%。公司上调年底产能规划由140KK至150KK/月，上调出货增速指引由区间25%-30%至30%，显示在手订单量充足，分析主要由于三星出货预期上调及公司供应链份额提升；同时超大光圈、超薄等高端规格升级驱动ASP向上趋势持续。
VLS业务维持稳定增长，考虑到车载镜头行业增速稳定且公司龙头地位稳固，预计VLS业务仍将保持稳健增长。车载摄像模组、激光雷达相关新项目相继导入，汽车收入占比有望逐年提升，为公司打开中长期发展空间。
◆估值与评级
鉴于19年HLS出货预期上调，我们上调19年净利润预测1%至34亿元；维持20年净利润预测为46亿；鉴于车载模组等相关产品有望于2021年上量，上调21年净利润预测1%至61亿元人民币，对应18-21E CAGR为35%，考虑到光学创新赛道宽且长，公司龙头地位依旧稳固，HCM盈利改善、HLS强势上扬有望驱动其重回快速成长轨道，维持目标价108港币，对应19/20年31/23倍PE，维持“买入”评级。
◆风险提示：镜头行业竞争加剧；多摄、3D等创新应用渗透不及预期。
【附录】
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