阅文集团(0772.HK)严监管+费用提升致业绩波动版权运营是亮点调整为“持有”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：持有
核心观点：
1．19H1业绩低于预期，内容严监管导致付费阅读收入下滑、新丽业绩波动，新产品推广使得费用大幅增长。19H1收入和归母净利分别为29.71亿(+30.1%)和3.93亿(-22.4%)，其中新丽并表收入和利润分别为6.64亿和0.96亿；毛利率升至54.6%，主要是新丽并表大幅提升版权运营毛利率；销售费用同比大幅+85.2%达9.77亿元，主要是新增飞读推广、游戏营销支出及新丽电影宣发支出；所得税率增长主要是部分子公司所得税率较高。其他收益净额大幅增至2.7亿主要是新丽收购代价变动、相应的未支付股份公允价值变动产生的收益。
2．部分内容调整+阅读时长流失导致在线业务收入下滑，免费阅读+广告模式开始贡献增量收入。19H1公司调整业务口径，在线业务包括付费阅读、网络广告及游戏联运。19H1付费平台月活用户环比略增，付费用户和付费率分别降为970万、4.5%；平台作家和作品数环比明显增长。广告和游戏联运约贡献1.07亿增量收入。免费阅读2种模式中，与手Q/QQ浏览器合作模式的利润率较好，飞读APP于6月开始推广，6月DAU约200万(根据QM)，前期推广费用较高。考虑到阅文在内容和渠道优势，免费阅读有望做到第一梯队。
3．版权运营是亮点，新丽并表6.6亿收入，自有版权运营收入同比+75%，游戏贡献较大增量。自有版权运营：自营的《新斗罗大陆》1~5月流水达4亿（根据阅文微信公众号），收入增量贡献明显；储备《全职高手》电影(8月16日上映)和手游（腾讯研发和发行）等项目；参投影视、动漫项目增多；19H1对外授权70部作品改编权，授权业务保持优势。新丽：业绩受剧目播出时间影响，19H1收入主要来自《芝麻胡同》、电影《手机狂响》，储备《庆余年》《狼殿下》已取得发行许可证、《惊蛰》(70周年国庆推荐剧目)、《天龙八部》、《精英律师》、《流经岁月》等。
4．调整为“持有”评级。内容严监管使影视业绩仍有不确定性，关注新丽新剧播出进展；部分内容陆续重上，将缓解付费阅读下滑，免费阅读商业化开始贡献增量收入；下半年免费阅读/游戏进入成长期或成熟期，销售费用预计有所控制。预计19~20年归母净利分别为人民币9.89亿元、11.03亿元，当前股价对应19~20年PE分别为22倍、20倍。短期内外部因素使业绩波动，考虑到网文是中国文娱产业重要源头，具有长期价值，阅文是网文领域领导平台，新丽储备剧目播出即对业绩有正向贡献，给予20年22倍PE，对应合理价值26.5港元/股。公司于8月13日以4,976万港元回购200万股。
5．风险提示：付费阅读用户下降；盗版影响付费意愿；广告增长不达预期；重点剧目延播致业绩波动；新丽业绩不达预期，导致商誉减值风险。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
