中国旭阳集团(1907.HK)焦稳化增估值优势明显目标价3.85港元首次覆盖给予“买入”评级
机构：中信证券
评级：买入
目标价：3.85港元
核心观点
公司作为国内大型独立焦化生产企业，行业龙头地位稳固。在焦炭行业环保去产能进一步的推进下，焦炭价格有望获得支撑，公司盈利有望维持高位。同时，公司向下游延伸的精细化工产业链未来两年也有产能扩张，预计将贡献业绩增量。目前公司的P/E估值不足5倍，估值优势明显，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
▍民营焦化企业龙头，三大优势提升竞争力。公司是国内独立焦化龙头企业，控股及合营公司的焦化产能合计784万吨，具有明显的规模优势，能发挥产运销协同效应。公司位于下游钢铁行业集中的河北省，也靠近山西等主焦煤产区，原料采购成本更可控，具有明显的区位优势。此外，公司还有领先的管理经验和技术优势，提高了公司的营运效率。
▍焦炭产量稳定，盈利或持续受益于焦炭去产能。公司焦炭板块产能稳定，产量受环保限产影响小，预计维持在480万吨/年的规模。未来随着焦炭环保去产能的推进，产能置换衔接期或出现供给收缩，利好2020年焦炭价格上涨。预计未来随着焦炭价格维持高位，公司焦炭板块毛利率可稳定在25%左右。同时，公司焦化业务还积极开展管理输出，可通过有限的资本支出扩大市场份额，进一步整合行业资源，利于行业龙头地位的巩固。
▍精细化工产业链产能有扩张，预计将贡献业绩增量。公司精细化工板块有13种化产品，下游应用广泛，销售稳定。化工产品成本在焦化循环一体的产业链下也较为稳定。同时，公司有己内酰胺扩能、苯乙烯及聚酰胺热塑性弹性体项目正在推进，预计将为化工板块长期业绩增长提供来源。
▍风险因素：宏观经济增速放缓，影响焦炭及化工产品需求。公司产能扩张不达预期。
▍投资建议：考虑焦炭行业去产能支撑焦炭价格、化产品产能扩张等因素，我们预测公司2019～2021年EPS为0.55/0.62/0.62港元，当前价2.83港元，对应2019年P/E5倍。对标A股的焦化公司估值，我们认为公司合理的P/E估值水平应为7倍，对应目标价3.85港元，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
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