信义光能(0968.HK)业绩环比改善下半年或将更好维持“增持”评级目标价4.7港元
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：4.7港元
本报告导读：
公司中报业绩环比改善，且光伏玻璃量价齐升仍在进行时，下半年业绩或将更好。
摘要：维持“增持”评级。19H1公司实现收入39.97亿港币，同减4.3%，归母净利9.53亿元，同减21.5%，略低于市场预期。因公司等龙头致力于行业的长效发展，调价机制较为平和，下调公司2019-20年归母净利至22、27亿港元，分别同增18%、22.7%，对应2019年PE约16X。考虑到光伏行业步入平价下的成长快车道，维持目标价4.7港元。
光伏玻璃量价齐升仍在进行时。公司光伏玻璃营业额约29.25亿港币，同比下降5.9%，毛利率39.3%，同减3.3pct，我们认为主要源于去年“531”新政后光伏玻璃价格大幅下调，虽然18Q3后价格步入上升区间，但19H1均价较去年同期仍有差距，测算同比下降超10%。6月底光伏玻璃价格已恢复至“531”前的26-27元/平，预计下半年光伏玻璃价格将持续上行。销量方面，得益于海外需求的增长，以及公司马来西亚1000t/d及天津500t/d产线的投复产，上半年销量同增13.6%。随着公司芜湖600t/d产线的复产，及芜湖500t/d产线预计9月底复产，测算下半年销量较上半年或再增15%。
虽然受阴雨天气较多影响，公司太阳能发电业务仍维持较高水平。报告期内公司太阳能发电营业额及毛利增速分别为8.4%、7.8%，毛利率小幅下行0.4pct，主要原因为公司光伏电站大部分位于华中地区，Q1阴雨天气影响较为显著。截至期末，公司累计核准容量已达2312mw，较2018年末增加30mw，同比增加约450mw，而公司安徽30mw及广西40mw项目已中标补贴目录。
信义能源分拆上市有效降低公司负债水平，但股权比例的下滑摊薄归母净利。信义能源实现了分拆上市，其定位太阳能发电运营商，促使公司净负债率较2018年末的66.2%下降至20.2%，但由于光能在信义能源股权比例由75%减少至53.7%，部分导致了公司归母净利的减少。公司中期每股派息5.5港仙，分红率约46%，基本维持平稳。
风险提示：替代材料的出现、光伏政策大幅变动
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
