玖龙纸业(2689.HK)化挑战为机遇的龙头之路给予“买入”评级目标价8.77~11.73港元
机构：国信证券
评级：买入
目标价：8.77~11.73港元
包装原纸行业面临多重挑战 2018 年下半年以来，包装原纸行业面临上、中、下游多重挑战。上游原材料中 外废配额大幅下降、国废价格剧烈波动，企业成本大幅提高。中游产能总体过 剩，但具有市场竞争力的优质产能不足，导致越来越多的下游客户选择海外进 口箱板和瓦楞原纸。下游需求受贸易战等因素影响持续低迷，纸价持续下行进 一步压缩纸企盈利空间。
产能结构的优化在一进一退之间推进 随着行业整体增速的放缓，市场竞争在存量企业之间更加激烈。包装纸行业的 产能结构优化，有望在头部企业低成本、高质量的新产能扩张和部分中小企业 高成本、低质量的落后产能退出，这一进一退之间逐步实现。
玖龙有望化挑战为机遇，再上发展新台阶 玖龙是我国的包装原纸行业的龙头公司，收入随产能释放稳步增长，吨纸盈利 虽较高峰期下滑但中枢明显提升，竞争优势不断加强。2017-2018 年公司盈利 显著改善，大幅度优化负债结构，为今后发展打下良好基础。 公司已开始进行“全球化+产业链一体化”的宏大布局，有望逐步优化产品和 成本结构，提高盈利的稳定性，逐步向国际化的综合型纸企迈进。
首次覆盖给予“买入”评级，合理估值区间 8.77~11.73 港元 预计公司 2019-2021FY 的营业收入分别为 606.57、626.46 和 732.21 亿元，同比 增速 14.9%、3.3%和 16.9%；归母净利润分别为 36.76、37.23 和 93.87 亿元，同 比增速-53.1%、1.3%和 152.1%；EPS 分别为 0.78、0.79 和 2.00 元/股；对应 PB 分别为 0.70、0.65 和 0.55 倍，对应 PE 分别为 7.4、7.3 和 2.9 倍。 我们认为包装原纸行业的供给侧收缩对玖龙等龙头公司有利，看好公司盈利逐 步企稳和反转，首次覆盖玖龙纸业并给予公司“买入”评级。根据绝对/相对估值 法，给予公司 8.77~11.73 港元的合理估值区间。
风险提示 行业供给侧收缩幅度不及预期；下游需求持续疲软，纸价持续下降；废纸原材 料供应和价格剧烈波动；公司新产能投放不及预期。
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