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《大行报告》大和下调中移动(00941.HK)目标价至79.6元评级「跑赢大市」
阿思达克 07-10 10:48

大和发表研究报告,指近期行业数据及发展反映中移动(00941.HK)正面对的收入及资本开支风险加剧,并高於该行原先预期。大和下调其目标价,由89.8元降至79.6元,评级「跑赢大市」。

报告称,该行最新电讯行业收费调查反映,在一年之前大幅降价後,行业收费已稳定下来。不过,本年至今,中移动月度用户数据使用仍疲弱,或显示中移动今年首季面对的收入挑战将延续至第二季。近期监管当局报告亦确认有关忧虑,工信部指今年首五个月行业收入增长放缓至按年仅升0.3%,较首季增长1%放慢。因此,大和下调中移动上客预测及每月每户平均收入(ARPU)预测後,降其2019至2021年各年流动服务收入预测分别1.6%、2.7%及3.2%。

同时,大和表示,中移动资本开支或对利润率构成更大风险。中移动在近期举行的MWC(上海)大会,披露计划在今年底或之前,透过动用逾5万个基站推出商用5G。这较中移动先前4月时提及的3万个5G基站为多。该行称,也许更重要的是,中移动计划在明年底或之前,达至省级的覆盖水平,意味其资本开支前景仍未明朗。大和上调中移动2019至2021年资本开支预测介乎2%至10%,以反映5G推出时间表加快。

该行下调中移动2019至2021年每股盈测介乎2%至9%,以反映下调收入预测及资本开支预测上升。报告补充,中移动现价相当於过去十六年企业价值对EBITDA比率均值折让28%,估值十分吸引。

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