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《大行》花旗升匯控(00005.HK)目標價至118.2元 納入未來90天短期上行觀察
阿思達克 09-23 15:33
花旗發表英國銀行業報告表示,過去三個月,受惠於HIBOR走高及關稅憂慮緩解,高度國際化的英國銀行表現更為強勁,相比之下,英國本土銀行則落後,主要因為市場對11月26日財政預算案中的宏觀經濟擔憂升溫。該行在行業首選Natwest(NWG.L)及匯豐控股(00005.HK),同樣給予「買入」評級,匯控目標價由105.6元上調至118.2元。 花旗料匯控今年第三季基礎稅前利潤83億美元,比市場一致預期高出3%。計入季內HIBOR走勢影響,估計淨利息收入達107億美元,比市場共識高2%。同時,非利息收入預測為65億美元,比市場預期高4%,主要受惠於財富管理業務費用帶動。整體收入比共識高約3%,但營運成本預測高出約2%,減值撥備則高出約3%,主要反映香港商業地產或有的額外撥備。該行預期第三季宣布每股派息0.10美元,以及再進行30億美元回購計劃。 該行料匯控管理層維持兩大目標,包括:中期股東權益回報率仍維持中十位數(mid-teens)目標、全周期信貸成本率持續約30-40個基點,該行預計匯控管理層將會把全年銀行淨利息收入指引上調至「超過420億美元」(原約420億美元)。 花旗指,今年第三季一個月HIBOR按季下跌14個基點,而英國三個月期SONIA下跌20個基點,對淨利息收入構成壓力。在結構性對沖的推動(香港區NIM下降)下,該行仍預期季度整體淨息差持平於1.95%。因此,第三季銀行淨利息收入預測為107億美元,比共識高2%。 此外,該行將匯控納入其未來90天短期上行觀察(Upside 90-Day Short-Term View)名單。 匯控今日股價逆市上揚1%報108.3元。
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