《大行》國信證券:阿里、百度自研算力晶片 國產模型訓練逐漸脫鉤海外
國信證券發表內地電子行業報告,上周上證累漲1.52%,電子板塊上漲6.15%,子行業中元件上漲11.33%。同期恆生科技、費城半導體、台灣資訊科技分別上漲5.31%、4.17%、6.05%。繼北美算力產業鏈高速增長的業績兌現催化主線行情之後,半導體在台積電(TSM.US)上修年度業績指引、中芯國際(00981.HK)和華虹半導體(01347.HK)在法說會上對未來訂單及景氣樂觀展望的背景下,迎來板塊性快速上漲行情,此前該行一直重點推薦的模擬(對美反傾銷)和儲存(漲價)近期均迎來較大行情催化,半導體自主可控再度成為市場焦點。
與此同時,Deepseek、阿里-W(09988.HK)先後表態對國產算力的適配力度和採購比重都有所加大,而國內先進製程的配套能力也在不斷提升,本土算力鏈正經歷「戴維斯雙擊」。該行維持對於2025年電子板塊在「宏觀政策週期、產業庫存週期、AI創新週期」共振下「估值擴張」的樂觀判斷。
國家商務部對美產模擬晶片發起反傾銷調查,推薦模擬晶片和晶圓代工板塊。商務部9月13日公佈對原產於美國的進口相關模擬晶片發起反傾銷立案調查,傾銷調查期為2024年1月1日至2024年12月31日,產業損害調查期為2022年1月1日至2024年12月31日;調查自2025年9月13日起開始,通常應在2026年9月13日前結束調查,特殊情況下可延長6個月;調查產品為使用40nm及以上工藝製程的通用接口晶片和柵極驅動晶片。該行認為,本次調查有利於改善價格競爭並加速國產替代,重點推薦包括中芯國際及華虹半導體等。
國信證券指,阿里、百度(09888.HK)自研算力晶片,國產模型訓練逐漸脫鉤海外。據外媒報道,阿里巴巴、百度已開始採用內部自主設計的晶片訓練AI大模型。阿里巴巴在最新一期財報交流會中提到,面對全球AI晶片供應及政策變化,公司準備「後備方案」。而百度旗下「崑崙芯P800」也同時在被內部和外部客戶採用,在中國移動2025年至2026年人工智能通用計算設備(推理型)集中採購項目中,基於崑崙芯的AI伺服器產品,在3個標包中,分別拿下70%、70%及100%的份額,均排名第一,中標訂單規模達十億級。近期,國產算力晶片逐步替代英偉達,體現了中國人工智能發展與西方半導體生態逐漸走向脫鉤。
百度午後持續強勢,最新報131.7元攀升16.3%報131.6元,為升幅最大藍籌股,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)揚5.6%。
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