《大行》高盛:內地科網股首選遊戲、出行及雲計算 料即時零售競爭烈及美團季度虧損
高盛發表報告表示,內地8月網上商品零售額按年增長7%,較7月(+8%)有所放緩,而網上服務零售額增速則進一步加速至37%(7月為+35%),主要受益於消費持續向服務類轉移,以及外賣、飲品、本地生活平台補貼活動。8月整體零售總額按年增長3.4%,大致符合預期,較7月3.7%有所放緩。增長放緩主要由換購品類顯著降溫所驅動,其中家用電器增速回落至+14%(7月及6月各為+29%及+32%),通訊設備增速也放緩至+7%。預計9月起家電品類將面臨明顯增速放緩甚至按年下滑,主要因高基數效應,這類換購品類未來兩年年均複合增長率(CAGR)將是更為適用的參考指標。
高盛估計內地外賣及即時零售行業競爭持續,美團(03690.HK)繼續全力捍衛市場領先地位,電商平台則於9至10月持續聚焦提升單位經濟效益。該行預計美團、阿里巴巴(09988.HK)、京東(09618.HK)於9月季度經調整EBIT將分別減少270億、310億及130億元人民幣,預計美團集團層面或出現虧損,阿里、京東集團EBIT按年下滑53%及97%。該行預測長期而言,美團、阿里及京東在外賣+即時零售市場的份額最終將穩定在「5:4:1」的格局(基準情景)。
該行指,拼多多(PDD.US)旗下Temu美國GMV持續復甦:Temu美國MAU(月活躍用戶數)按月增長20%。
高盛指,中國電商App用戶粘性保持健康,8月按年增加13%。龍頭平台中,京東及淘寶用戶時長按年各強勁增長61%及17%,可能受益於外賣/即時零售業務帶來的更高頻用戶流量。拼多多用戶時長按年升2%。同時,平台商家App日活佔比(反映商家入駐及留存趨勢)總體穩定,阿里巴巴、拼多多及抖音分別佔36%、23%及20%。
該行表示在中國互聯網板塊上,首選遊戲、出行、雲計算及數據中心三大子行業。電商領域看好拼多多,並按子行業偏好列出中國互聯網關鍵選股:1)遊戲:騰訊、網易(09999.HK);2)出行:滴滴(DIDIY.US)、滿幫(YMM.US);3)雲計算及數據中心:阿里巴巴、世紀互聯(VNET.US)、萬國數據(GDS.US);4)電商:拼多多。物流板塊,建議買入細分龍頭順豐控股(06936.HK)、京東物流(02618.HK)、中通(02057.HK)。
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