《港樓》瑞銀料施政報告對400萬至600萬物業減免印花稅可能性中等
香港政府將於下周三(17日)發表2025年《施政報告》。瑞銀投資銀行大中華區房地產行業分析師梁展嘉預測,對400萬至600萬元物業的印花稅減免(由現時的1.5%至2.25%降至一律100元)的可能性屬中等。估計每年稅收損失少於20億元,與2023至2025年間每年錄得的140億至700億元土地收益相比,屬相對較小的金額。
該價位的物業目前佔整體市場成交量的32%。針對性印花稅減免有望進一步刺激市場成交量,加快行業去庫存,並支持土地銷售。值得注意的是,自2025年2月印花稅減免後,400萬元以下物業的成交量年初至今已上升40%,達11,663宗。
他指,該行於7月31日首次指出「資本通買樓」計劃的潛在影響,當時財政司司長宣布政府正與內地部門合作,研究放寬跨境資金轉移限制。儘管仍有許多細節需商討,因此不預期該計劃會在短期內全國推行。不過,任何政策更新都有可能釋放因美國加息而受壓的本地潛在需求。另一方面,該行認為進一步放寬「資本投資者入境計劃」下豪宅投資限制的可能性屬中等,目前該計劃僅涵蓋5,000萬元或以上的物業。
香港政府亦可能致力吸引更多內地旅客,以支持本地零售業。繼「粵車南下」計劃推出後,該行預期「多次往返」個人遊簽註可能擴展至深圳以外的大灣區城市居民。同時亦預期北部都會區的發展將繼續成為施政報告的重點,並會加快相關發展措施。此外,政府可能會公布「房託通」的最新推出時間表。
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