《大行》星展:約38%港股及A股企業中績優預期 重申對港股正面 偏好科技及非銀行金融板塊
星展發表港股及A股市場策略報告表示,港股上半年企業業績喜憂參半,企業季度淨利增速略有放緩,分析員同業小幅下調對港股盈利預測,但上調對A股盈利預測。
該行指,所研究覆蓋共187間的恆生指數及滬深300指數成分股,38%企業所公佈的盈利超出原預期(比2024財年業績期大幅上升12.5個百分點),但另一方面,盈利低於預期的比例也擴大,上升12.1個百分點至40.6%,顯示盈利表現差異加大。總體而言,港股及A股第二季淨利潤增長,自2025年首季按年升3.1%小幅放緩至第二季的2.5%。於此背景下,分析員對全年預測進行溫和調整,過去30天恆指與滬深300指數成份股在2025財年盈利預測分別被調整為-2.4%及+2.8%。
業務前景改善,更多公司管理層對業務前景持正面態度,71.9%的管理團隊表達正面或建設性的看法,較2024財年業績期上升8.2個百分點。持保守態度的管理團隊比例則下跌5.4個百分點至7.2%。樂觀情緒主要集中在原材料、資本財與非必需消費品分銷等行業,而房地產公司前景依然低迷。
星展指,企業業績喜憂參半,反映出2025年上半年的宏觀經濟挑戰,但管理層的信心,以及內地「反內捲」行動啟動後經濟初步有回暖的跡象,如工廠出廠價格回升與8月PMI訂單改善,有望在一定程度上緩解基本面憂慮並支持股市情緒。該行維持對港股及A股正面看法,重申偏好科技、非銀行金融板塊,並視「反內捲」行動為太陽能等板塊帶來交易機會。
分板塊來看,媒體與娛樂以及家庭與個人用品行業的盈利驚喜比例最高,兩個行業中所有公司均超出市場預期,其中騰訊(00700.HK)AI部署推動其第二季業績全面超預期、百度(09888.HK)營運開支低於預期、美的(00300.HK)受益於效率提升與各地市場穩健表現,實現強勁的盈利增長。相對而言,半導體與公用事業行業出現最高比例的盈利低於預期:中芯(00981.HK)與華虹半導體(01347.HK)均面臨毛利率壓力、龍源電力(00916.HK)受制於利用小時數下降。
互聯網板塊,騰訊和阿里巴巴在全國人工智能需求增加及核心業務融入人工智能的推動下,2025年第二季錄得強勁業績。在線旅遊(OTA)行業也因強勁的旅遊需求而實現穩健增長。然而,食品外賣行業的競爭對美團(03690.HK)、京東(09618.HK)和阿里巴巴(09988.HK)的盈利構成拖累,該行預計這一趨勢在短期內將持續,其中美團受影響最大。與此同時,在電商領域,儘管618購物節期間線上零售銷售增長強勁,但阿里巴巴、京東和拼多多(PDD.US)在商家補貼支持方面的競爭依然激烈,這可能在短期內繼續壓縮利潤率。
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