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惠譽下調萬科(02202.HK)信貸評級至「CCC-」
評級機構惠譽表示,已將中資房企萬科企業(02202.HK)的長期外幣及本幣發行人主體評級自「CCC+」下調至「CCC-」。惠譽同時將萬科的全資子公司萬科地產香港的長期發行人主體評級、高級無抵押評級以及其未償付高級票據的評級自「CCC」下調至「CCC-」,回收率評級爲RR4。 本次評級下調反映出萬科流動性進一步趨弱。考慮到惠譽預測萬科的自由現金流在短期內仍將保持負值,惠譽認爲,萬科第一大股東深圳市地鐵集團有限公司(深圳地鐵)及時持續提供支持對萬科履行財務義務至關重要。 惠譽認爲,持續的股東支持將對萬科化解其2025年剩餘時間到期的140億元人民幣(下同)資本市場債務及2026年到期的120億元債務至關重要。萬科的可用現金自2024年末的840億元降至截至2025年6月末的690億元,惠譽認爲,其中大部分現金爲預售監管現金存款。深圳地鐵已向萬科提供240億元股東貸款,支持後者在2025年迄今償付220億元資本市場債務。 2025年上半年,萬科銷售額按年下降46%至690億元,低於惠譽此前對全年40%降幅的預期。2025年第二季度,銷售額按年加速下降51%,降幅較2025年第一季度40%的降幅擴大。據CREIS中指資料庫數據顯示,2025年上半年,萬科銷售額表現遜於中國百強房企的降幅(12%)。惠譽目前預期萬科2025年銷售額將下滑45%,2026年下滑30%(此前預期降幅分別爲40%、25%)。惠譽認爲萬科銷售額下滑已擠壓其自由現金流和流動性狀況。 惠譽認爲萬科業績不佳反映出盤活部分現有庫存及可售資源存在難度。資產盤活涉及與地方政府等多方利益相關者的協商,存在執行風險和時間進度的不確定性。萬科表示自2023年起該公司已盤活64個項目,涉及銷售資源790億元。這些項目佔2024年合同銷售額的32%。 惠譽預期即使計入資產處置所得,萬科2025、2026年自由現金流仍將保持負值。惠譽預期,2025、2026年自由現金流流出將分別爲90億至100億元、50億元,而2024年流出額爲100億元,上述預估已包含資產處置潛在所得。2025年上半年,萬科自由現金流流出90億元(2024年上半年流出110億元),包含資產處置所得,弱於惠譽此前預期其在2025至2026年間實現現金流基本平衡的預測。 2025年上半年,萬科簽訂資產處置合同64億元,收到資產處置現金所得40億至50億元。惠譽認爲資產處置的及時執行及現金回收對支撐公司流動性至關重要。惠譽預期,2025年該公司將收到100億元左右的資產處置所得(2024年爲100億元),以補充現金流,但這存在時間進度的不確定性及執行風險。
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